Democrats want a blue wave. New Hampshire is Exhibit A for why this might not happen

HUDSON, NH (AP) — Five weeks before Election Day, Democratic enthusiasm is reaching a fever pitch.

As Republicans struggle to overcome President Donald Trump’s bad reputation, Democrats are on the offensive in Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida, and even eyeing elections in redder-colored Kansas and Mississippi. Many Democratic leaders predict that the majority in the House is no longer theirs and that the majority in the Senate, almost unthinkable a year ago, is also within their reach.

However, amid such confidence, Democrats are ignoring glaring vulnerabilities that threaten to undermine the unstoppable blue wave they claim is coming.

Look no further than the swing state of New Hampshire, where Democratic leaders are sounding the alarm about political challenges that could jeopardize Rep. Chris Pappas’ campaign for an open Senate seat and undermine the party’s ability to win elections across the country.

Democrats point to the Republicans’ enormous financial advantage that allows them to dominate the airwaves in the final days of the campaign. At the same time, the Democrats’ brand remains deeply unpopular, and they have virtually no margin for error in midterm elections that are largely taking place in Republican-leaning states.

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New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Ray Buckley said national Democratic leaders “have always been too optimistic” as they seek to expand the midterm map. He is particularly concerned about the Senate race in his state, where Republicans are investing far more resources than Democrats.

“There is reason to be concerned,” Buckley said. “We don’t want to let this one go because they were sending resources to other unicorns – to another state, which is just not possible.”

Despite these warnings, there are few signs of concern among senior Democrats, who point to Trump’s poor reputation among voters frustrated by the war with Iran and rising costs with Republicans in control of Washington.

“We’re not doing anything. We’re winning because they’re losing,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone. “And they lose hugely with every action the president takes.”

There is virtually no state where Democrats can’t compete in November, he said: “America is the battleground state.”

Democrats lack money and goodwill

For all the Democrats’ confidence, the party’s image remains deeply unpopular and fundraising lags.

More than half of voters, 55 percent, have a “strongly” or “somewhat” unfavorable opinion of Democrats, according to a September Fox News poll. A similar share, 58%, says the same about the Republican Party, while about 6 in 10 voters have a negative view of Trump (62%).

At the same time, about half of registered voters believe the Democratic Party is “too left,” according to a recent New York Times/Siena poll.

As the election approaches, few Democratic leaders acknowledge there is a problem.

In an interview, Sen. Mark Kelly, Democrat of Arizona, pointed the finger at Republicans when asked about problems with the Democratic brand.

“We made a much better case than they did, and that’s why it looks like we’re going to win a lot of seats in the House and probably win back the Senate,” Kelly said. “Right now, I think the Republican brand is the one that’s damaged.”

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And yet Democrats are struggling to keep pace with Republican fundraising.

Buoyed by their campaign cash, the Republicans dominated the airwaves during the final weeks of the campaign. There isn’t a single state that has a prominent Senate race in which Democrats outspend Republicans.

Nationally, Republicans spend $1.63 billion on election advertising between Sept. 1 and Election Day, compared to $1.19 billion for Democrats, according to data compiled by AdImpact on Monday. The Republican advantage, nearly 40 percent nationally, is actually larger in some key states.

In Texas, for example, where competitive elections for Senate, House and governor are being held, Republicans are spending $262.4 million statewide between Sept. 1 and Election Day, compared to $76.9 million for Democrats, according to AdImpact. In Ohio, which also hosts crucial elections for Senate and governor, Republicans outspend Democrats by $258.8 million to $160.4 million. And in Florida, where competitive races for governor and House are taking place, Republicans are spending $99.3 million compared to $47.9 million for Democrats.

The Republican advantage is not as stark in New Hampshire as in other states, but it is significant. AdImpact finds that Republicans outspend Democrats in New Hampshire, $41.2 million to $35.4 million statewide.

Pappas, the Democrat in New Hampshire’s Senate race, acknowledged the Republican spending advantage and warned that his state must remain a priority for his national party.

“The majority won’t be flipped if we don’t get this seat in New Hampshire, so it’s really critical to the overall map,” he said during a campaign stop.

Democrats face ‘an identity crisis’

Pappas met with small business owners Tuesday, including Amber Morgan, owner of Fortin Gage Flowers in Nashua. She said the uncertainty created by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration has been difficult for her business.

But Morgan, a Democrat, is not surprised that the New Hampshire Senate race is close, given that Republicans are running well-known former Sen. John E. Sununu. She said the Democratic Party also has its flaws.

“I think the message, for so long, has just been, ‘We’re not Trump,’ and we’ve had a bit of an identity crisis in terms of what we actually stand for,” Morgan said.

She is not alone.

Nationally, the NYT/Siena poll found that about 6 in 10 registered voters who identify as Democrats say their party is divided, while just 4 in 10 Republicans (37%) say the same about the GOP. About 6 in 10 Republicans (61%) describe their party as united, compared to about 4 in 10 Democrats (40%).

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But money remains Democrats’ dominant concern as the Republican spending advantage grows.

Steve Marchand, a Democratic consultant and former New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate, said Sununu benefited from domestic money that was redirected from other states that are no longer considered prime targets, while Democrats were slower to invest.

“Democrats, including Pappas, have become increasingly frustrated that national Democrats are treating this as a fait accompli, like ‘you’ve got it all up there, we’re going to other states,'” Marchand said. “And a lot of us Democrats were saying, ‘Hey, Sununu is going to be great, and New Hampshire is not an easy kind of state.’”

Fred Osterholtz, a sales engineer at one of the companies Pappas visited, also expressed concern about the huge sums of money being invested in the race on Sununu’s behalf. But he was impressed by Pappas’ focus.

“I think he’s starting to find some of the messages that will resonate,” Osterholtz said. “I didn’t feel that way six months ago, but with the world scene the way it is – the costs, the inflation – they’re holding on to the good things, I think.”

Peoples reported from New York and Sloan from Washington. Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington contributed.