Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – The capture of Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray, by Ethiopian federal forces and allied Tigray peace force fighters has revived painful memories of the 2020-2022 Tigray war, with residents fearing a return to prolonged violence, displacement and economic hardship.
The Tigray Popular Liberation Front (TPLF) confirmed its withdrawal from Mekelle on Saturday, saying its regional administration would temporarily operate from another location. Government forces and allied fighters entered the town on Saturday, with a pro-government militia source, an aid worker and a Mekelle resident confirming to the Reuters news agency on Sunday that they were in control of the town.
The development comes less than four years after the Ethiopian government and the TPLF signed the Pretoria Accord that ended two years of devastating fighting.
Berihu, a 32-year-old bajaj driver in Shire, northwest Tigray, said the latest fighting had been particularly difficult to watch.
“I am heartbroken to know that Tigray has returned to full-scale war,” he said in a telephone interview with Al Jazeera. “We have already seen what the last war did to our people, and now we feel like we are experiencing it again. »
The 2020-2022 war is estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions, and caused significant damage to infrastructure and livelihoods.
The African Union-facilitated deal, signed in Pretoria in November 2022, ended large-scale fighting, but key issues, including the status of disputed territories, the return of displaced people and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, remain unresolved.
In July, the TPLF declared that the Pretoria agreement had effectively failed, accusing the federal government of failing to implement key provisions. The federal government rejected the characterization, saying it remained committed to the peace process while accusing the TPLF of undermining the agreement.
The political conflict has been accompanied by growing military tensions, including reports of sporadic clashes and drone strikes in parts of Tigray. The two sides also exchanged accusations over troop movements and preparations for renewed fighting.
The capture of Mekelle marks a major development in the resumption of the conflict, once again placing the city at the center of the fighting.
Fear extends beyond Tigray
In Addis Ababa, the events also alarmed residents who remember the aftermath of the previous war.
Abel, a 30-year-old trader, said the fighting seemed distant until explosions were heard in the capital.
“I woke up and heard my town had been hit,” he said. “You hear about fighting in Tigray, and it seems far away. But when you hear about explosions in Addis Ababa, you start to wonder what will happen next.”
Diplomatic sources indicated that explosions were heard in several neighborhoods of the capital, including near the headquarters of the Ethiopian army. Reuters separately reported that a source linked to an opposition alliance said the group had carried out drone strikes in Addis Ababa, including against military installations. This claim could not be independently verified.
For Abel, the economic consequences are as worrying as the fighting itself.
“If the war gets worse, ordinary people will suffer,” he said.
Bisrat, a student in Addis Ababa, said the nighttime explosions had heightened his fear that Ethiopia could enter a much larger conflict.
“If Ethiopia enters into a full-scale war, ordinary people will suffer,” he said. “I’m afraid to see another Sudan.”
Sudan has been mired in war since April 2023, when fighting broke out between the army and rapid support paramilitary forces, displacing millions of people and creating a major humanitarian crisis.
The current fighting also involves a broader set of actors than the Tigray war that ended in 2022. The TPLF is part of a broader opposition alliance that includes armed groups from several regions of the country.
The fighting has also spread to Afar, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated sharply.
Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of interfering in Ethiopia’s internal affairs and supporting forces opposed to the federal government. Eritrea has rejected these accusations.
On Thursday, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, saying they had been involved in activities that posed a threat to Ethiopia’s national security.
Eritrea then announced that it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.
The diplomatic rift has added to fears that renewed fighting could take on a broader regional dimension.
Mekelle changes hands again
In Mekelle, residents had to try to understand what would come next after the TPLF withdrew.
Goitom, 37, said there had been a period of uncertainty after TPLF forces left the city, with what he described as a security vacuum allowing flights in some areas, including government offices.
“Friday night we heard gunshots but we didn’t know what was happening,” he said.
By Saturday, Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters had taken control of key sites, including the airport, according to Goitom. Reuters and the Associated Press news agency also reported that government-aligned forces entered Mekelle after the TPLF withdrew.
“It’s like we’re back to square one,” he said. “We have already seen what war can do to this city and to our families. People are worried about what will happen next.”
The TPLF, however, presented the withdrawal as a tactical decision rather than an end to the fighting.
In a statement released Saturday, the group said it had “temporarily left Mekelle” and that the regional government would “operate from another location.” He said the move was aimed at preventing further destruction in the city and indicated his forces would continue the conflict from other positions.
For the federal government, the capture of Mekelle represents an important step toward restoring federal control over the region.
Abraham Belay, former president of Tigray’s interim administration, said on Sunday that preparations were underway to establish a new interim administration in Tigray, with the aim of holding regional elections within a few months.
“We are working to establish a new administrative structure that will allow the people of Tigray to govern themselves,” Abraham said in an interview with Fana Broadcasting Corporate.
He said new administrative structures would be organized from the kebele level, with community participation, before the regional elections were held.
Competing narratives leave the next phase of the conflict uncertain. The federal government says it is seeking to restore its authority and establish a new regional administration, while the TPLF says its forces will continue to fight from elsewhere.
Civilian fears come to the fore
For people who lived through the previous war, the resumption of fighting has renewed fears of displacement, destruction and another protracted humanitarian crisis.
Berihu, the bajaj driver, said he saw bombed villages and civilians caught in fighting during the previous conflict, experiences that shaped his fears about what might come next.
“It is painful to think that civilians could once again bear the cost,” he said.
After years of displacement, loss and disruption, he said, many people in Tigray simply want the fighting to stop.
“We have already suffered enough,” Berihu said. “We just want peace. We don’t want to go through the same thing again.”
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