Welcome to the Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings edition of Cupps’ Cupboard! Every Friday this season, I’m reviewing the first iteration of my rankings for the upcoming week of games – identifying the players I have the biggest deltas on compared to Fantasy Life’s expert consensus, as well as looking at advanced metrics and usage data.
As someone with a strong data background and holistic approach to fantasy football, my rankings are created using a mix of several inputs:
- Fantasy Life’s weekly fantasy football projections, adjusted using fantasy football defense-versus-position (DvP) rankings
- Forecast market data (basically taking current prices on various yardage, touchdowns, receptions, etc., and creating implied fantasy point projections)
- Vegas prop lines (rush/recreation yards + receptions for pass catchers, passing/rush yards for quarterbacks). I’ll commonly call this a player’s “Vegas Base” projection: essentially, the land a player offers without any touchdown odds.
Using these sources as a baseline, I create my own hybrid projection system for each position and adjust it from there.
Let’s get straight to the point.
Quarterback I’m higher on in my Week 5 Fantasy Football rankings
Jacoby Brissett
Jacoby Brissett- Fantasy life:QB9
- My ranking: QB6 (+3)
Jacoby Brissett comes into Week 5 as probably the best streaming option at QB we’ve seen all season. The matchup is incredibly juicy – Detroit currently ranks 31st in defense versus position against the quarterback position, allowing 6.37 fantasy points per game more than the game average.
When looking at the projection data, Jacoby stands out tremendously. DvP-adjusted Fantasy Life rankings list him as QB3, prediction market implied projections list him as QB6, and his base floor in Vegas appears as QB4.
Unless you have a surefire QB1 that you start every week, I would absolutely look to fit Brissett into my lineups.
QB I’m lower in my Fantasy Football rankings for Week 5
Tyler Shough
Tyler Shough- Fantasy life:QB11
- My ranking: QB17 (-6)
Last week, data loved Tyler Shough. This week… not so much. I have him outside of my QB1 range, up to QB17. Nothing against Shough or his weekly upside – he generally looks really underrated. However, the confrontation against the Vikings looks brutal on paper:
- Fantasy Life Adjusted DvP Projection: 13.4 (QB21)
- Market Implied Forecast Projection: 17.0 (QB17)
- Vegas floor: 10.4 (QB16)
I would look to move on from Shough for other potential QB options this week if I could.
Running Back, I’m Higher in My Week 5 Rankings Than Consensus
Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones- Fantasy life: RB12
- My ranking:RB9 (+3)
We’re partying like it’s 2022 here with Aaron Jones back in the mid-range RB1 conversation. He draws against the Saints in Week 5, and it couldn’t be much better. Through four weeks, here’s what the RBs are working with against the Saints:
- 29th in DvP (+4.32 points on average)
- 138.5 rushing yards per game (1st)
- 2.25 rushing TDs per game (1st)
We saw what the “B Robinson” duo was able to put together in Week 4, and now it’s Aaron Jones’ turn. RB1 locked and loaded this next week.
RB I’m lower in my Week 5 rankings than consensus
Omarion Hampton
Omarion Hampton- Fantasy life: RB25
- My ranking: RB31 (-6)
Another week, another article talking about how far below Omarion Hampton I am compared to the consensus. In Week 5, the Chargers take on the Denver Broncos – a relatively middling matchup, as they currently rank 15th in DvP (-0.48 points worse than RBs on average).
As disappointing as the Los Angeles Chargers offense is as a whole, Hampton’s role in the backfield is arguably more disappointing. His four-week average usage rating of 55.1 ranks 28th, and his expected fantasy points per game of 11.5 puts him at RB30.
Things aren’t looking much better in market expectations for Hampton in Week 5. Market forecast data has him at 7.0 half PPR points (RB29), and his Vegas floor stands at 5.6 points (RB27). I don’t want to start Hampton if I can avoid it.
Wide receivers I’m higher on in my Week 5 Fantasy Football rankings
Josh Downs
Josh Downs- Fantasy life:WR25
- My ranking: WR21 (+4)
I know, I know… Josh Downs’ breakthrough in Week 4 against the Washington Commanders was a complete dud. Even though I’m not ranking him WR11 this time, I’m still a little higher than the consensus of Fantasy Life experts at WR21.
Even after a complete disaster last week, the market isn’t afraid of the Downs in Week 5 against Pittsburgh:
- Fantasy Life DvP Adjusted Projection: 9.9 (WR22)
- Market Implied Forecast Projection: 10.8 (WR15)
- Vegas Floor: 8.0 (WR16)
I’m going straight back to the well with Downs this week as a mid-level WR2.
Germie Bernard
Germie Bernard- Fantasy life:WR97
- My ranking: WR66 (+31)
This one’s for all my sickos looking to snipe potential gems from the Week 6 waiver wire ahead of time – I think Germie Bernard might be your guy.
Yesterday, Michael Pittman was officially placed on IR due to a foot injury. When Pittman missed Week 2, Bernard was the primary benefactor. He ran 85% of the routes and finished second on the team with a 22.5% target share, just behind DK Metcalf.
The market is also considerably higher on Bernard this week than the expert consensus:
- Market Implied Forecast Projection: 4.9 (WR51)
- Vegas Floor: 3.2 (WR49)
Obviously the numbers aren’t eye-popping, but it just goes to show that he really should be considered more of a back-end WR4/high-end WR5 than where he currently is. I wouldn’t recommend starting Bernard this week, but he’s my favorite reserve heading into week 5.
WRs I’m lower on in my Week 5 rankings than the consensus
Malik Nabers
Malik Nabers- Fantasy life:WR11
- My ranking: WR16 (-5)
It doesn’t bring me any joy to be Malik Nabers’ low man, especially after a superb Week 4 performance, but the data just doesn’t look great. While the Washington Commanders are among the softest matchups for receivers at 23rd in DvP (+2.72 points per game at the position on average), the market seems to have some hesitations about Nabers:
- Fantasy Life DvP Adjusted Projection: 10.9 (WR15)
- Market Implied Forecast Projection: 10.3 (WR18)
- Vegas floor: 8.3 (WR15)
If you have Nabers, you probably start it. Just recognize that it’s not as much of a success as it seems at first glance.
Mike Evans
Mike Evans- Fantasy life: WR20
- My ranking: WR25 (-5)
I really want to like Mike Evans this week, but the game against the Seahawks couldn’t be much tougher. Seattle currently ranks 3rd in DvP, allowing nearly 7 fewer points on average per game at the wide receiver position. This confrontation has harmful consequences on its projections:
- FantasyLife DvP Adjusted Projection: 9.4 (WR27)
- Market Implied Forecast Projection: 9.3 (WR23)
- Vegas Floor: 6.6 (WR25)
I can certainly imagine a world where Mike Evans would just show us that DvP has no impact on generational receivers, but he falls slightly out of my WR2 range with the matchup concern.
Tight End, I’m Higher in My Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings
Hunter Henri
Hunter Henri- Fantasy life: TE22
- My ranking: TE14 (+8)
While Hunter Henry falls to a low-end TE2 in the Fantasy Life consensus, he’s almost a back-end TE1 in my Week 5 rankings. Last week, when Drake Maye was able to start cooking in the passing game, Henry was a big benefactor:
- 5 targets (2nd on the team)
- 5 receptions (2nd)
- 62 receiving yards (1st)
- 11.6 PPR points
In Week 5, the Patriots face the Raiders, who currently rank 26th in DvP against TEs (+3.41 points more per week at the position). The market is also bullish on Henry in this matchup:
- FantasyLife DvP Adjusted Projection: 7.6 (TE8)
- Market Implied Forecast Projection: 8.1 (TE12)
- Vegas floor: 5.5 (TE12)
If you’re looking for a replacement at the TE position this week, Hunter Henry is the one I’d be with.
TE I’m lower in my Week 5 rankings than the consensus
Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews- Fantasy life: TE17
- My ranking: TE20 (-3)
The only tight end I think is lower than the Fantasy Life consensus in Week 5 is Mark Andrews, and honestly, it’s not that big of a difference. That being said, I thought it was worth mentioning as I found it quite surprising to see Andrews so far.
The Ravens will draw Atlanta next week, which has been a surprisingly strong defense thus far against the tight end position – ranking 10th in DvP and allowing 1.84 fewer points per week on average.
Additionally, it appears the Ravens will likely be without Lamar in this one and will instead work with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. I would bet this is factored into the low projections:
- FantasyLife DvP Adjusted Projection: 5.9 (TE19)
- Market Implied Forecast Projection: 6.7 (TE16)
- Vegas Floor: 4.7 (TE16)
I would look for other options late in a close game this week if possible.
Gn sports
