Grammy Predictions for Record of the Year: Taylor, Ellla, Two Olivias and More

Predicting the record of the year race for the 2027 Grammys is both very easy and very difficult… depending on whether we focus on narrowing down the thousands of first-round contenders to eight nominees, or whether we move forward to focus on who the ultimate winner will be. These are the nominations that we think we have a pretty good handle on. But the final winner? That’s another story, with at least a few entirely viable scenarios as to which candidate will ultimately win.

So it’s a good thing that, at the moment, the main task is simply to predict who will end up making it into the field of eight. In real terms, the race is only just beginning, as the general vote was held among Recording Academy members on Monday, with the first round continuing until October 22. From then on, it will be several weeks before nominees are announced on November 16, nearly two months before music’s most tense night, aka the Grammy ceremony on February 7, 2027.

As we’ve done with Variety’s already-published Album of the Year predictions, we’ve narrowed down what we consider to be the top contenders for Record of the Year into groups — first, a list of 10 favorites from which we hope all eight nominees will be chosen, followed by 10 more that we think have at least a decent chance of slipping in, followed by a broader list of dark horses that we don’t want to completely ignore. Next, we return to the Song of the Year competition, in which there’s bound to be a lot of overlap but also some distinctions to consider. Take a look and see how these match up to your own predictions:

Record of the year

Top ten contenders, in alphabetical order:

Ten others who could enter:

Also featured in the conversations: “Lost Boys” by Phoebe Bridgers, “Runway” by Lady Gaga and Doechii, “Out the Window” by Kehlani, “Boston” by Stella Lefty, “Bby Wow” by Karol G, “Days We Left Behind” by Paul McCartney, “Camera” by Charli Katseye. “Animal,” “Beautiful Things” by Megan Moroney, “Chanel” by Tyla, “Morning Dew (Donk) by Beyoncé,” “Dai Dai” by Shakira and Burna Boy, “Speed ​​Demon” by Justin Bieber, “Babydoll (Live) by Dominic Fife,” “Melatonin” by Tinashe, “Hit the Wall” by Gracie Abrams and “Girl, Get Up” by Doechii.

Honestly, we’re especially confident that all eight nominees will come from this initial list of 10 — which is insane, because this is the Grammys, with thousands of voters from vastly different chapters and demographics choosing from thousands of nominations. A surprise or three is always in order. But we have the impression close towards an inhabited field. If I were asked to knock two out of that first field of 10 to bravely bring it down to a firm eight, I’d probably reject the records of Ariana Grande and Rosalía. You could argue that Grande is longer than some others simply because she hasn’t really been a Grammy favorite in the top categories in recent years, for reasons that still seem puzzling. As for Rosalía, it’s easily the strangest track considered here – opening with a burst of neo-classical symphonic music, then cutting to the artist singing in German and Björk pleading in English, before ending with a male voice dropping a long succession of sexual F-bombs. Plus, Rosalía’s heat may be concentrated more in the Album of the Year category… but these are just great tracks, mutually appreciated, whether or not they succeed amid such stiff competition.

So let’s assume the final field comes down to Olivia Dean, Noah Kahan, Ella Langley, Bruno Mars, Raye, Olivia Rodrigo, Sienna Spiro and Taylor Swift, sticking in alphabetical order for now. This is a row of murderers’ files. If, while waiting for the ultimate winner, the idea is to continue a process of gradual elimination, then we could eliminate Mars and Khan, because they are men, right? It’s just not their year. I’m only half joking, but the tides say it’s a diva who wins.

With Mars, feelings about this album’s most beloved song were widely shared. He submitted “I Just Might,” the bravado-laden bop, for record of the year, and “Risk It All,” the sensitive ballad, for song of the year. “Risk It All” seems to be the song that had the longest legs, even though “I Just Might” was the biggest hit, so did he choose wisely? Time will tell. He brings some of the same factors as Swift: Does having already been showered with so many Grammys help or hurt? Kahan is in the opposite position of Mars, in that he has virtually no history with the Grammys; his only nomination previously was for Best New Artist. It wouldn’t be surprising if a significant number of voters think this is the perfect time to fill stadiums and make up for lost time. Plus, Kahan has such a winning personality, you know he would give the funniest speech of the evening. (Who would consider this when considering voting? Hoping it’s just me.)

If we consider these guys the longest shots, let’s look at the incredible group of female favorites: a showdown between Taylor Swift and Olivia Rodrigo, which will spark a million other ugly fan feuds on social media before it’s all over, plus a Fab Four of newcomers to the scene – Raye, Dean, Langley and Spiro. There will already be fierce competition to see whether Langley or Spiro will be voted best new artist. (We haven’t made any official predictions in this category yet, but yes, consider this a spoiler for where this article is going.)

If one of them is going to win Record of the Year, the obvious bet to place would be on “Choosin’ Texas,” because by any standard of real, verifiable, objective data, it was clearly THE record of the year. “Choosin’” recently crossed the 24-week mark at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 to set an all-time record, making it the Tennessean elephant in the room. Country has done poorly in the top categories in recent years, but Langley will obviously be the exception, and has a solid chance of being the first country winner for record or song of the year since Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now” in 2011. Some might even say that if Langley doesn’t crack a top category this year, we should just sigh and believe it will never happen again for the genre.

Spiro, meanwhile, will hit the sweet spot of many neo-traditionalist voters; it would be a shock (but it’s not unthinkable) if she could use that cute beehive hairstyle as a battering ram and make her way past the biggest blockbusters here. Raye is like Spiro, in the sense that you imagine her to be a poster girl for the Recording Academy and the Grammys for years, even decades, to come. Will this enormous and almost immediate reservoir of goodness be enough to elevate an iconic song like “Where Is My Husband!” or “Die on This Hill” at the top of the rankings is an open question; there would be shouts of joy if either succeeded.

But the best odds would be to favor Dean (herself a newcomer, having won Best New Artist last year), Rodrigo or Swift. Previously in this column, we looked at how, for album of the year, the race between the two Olivias might be close enough that one or the other might have to wait a few beats when they hear the winner’s name announced in that category. Perhaps we could say the same thing when it comes to record of the year. But we also devoted a recent column to the interesting position Swift finds herself in this year, as the recipient of some “she’s late!” ” feeling. If you haven’t read the previous coverage and are wondering how this could happen, the answer is this: despite all the gold on her shelf, Swift has never won record of the year. Or Song of the Year… just Album of the Year seemingly a million times (and of course, some “lesser” categories as well).

“The Fate of Ophelia” certainly rivals “Choosin’ Texas” in some ways as the biggest single of the year. It definitely deserves the award for the most charming meme generator of 2025-2026. Anyone who has spent any time on Instagram in the last 12 months knows full well that “Ophelia” had hundreds of thousands of fans recreating the dance moves from the music video, something that can stick in the mind when considering what constitutes a record of the year. And that could ultimately be more of a deciding factor in a possible victory than the categories in which the superstar would have been deprived until now.

Swift has had multiple No. 1s and split her submissions for Record and Song between “Ophelia” for the former and the Pixar song “I Knew It, I Knew You” for the latter. But it’s interesting to note that Dean and Rodrigo, who also had several huge songs, didn’t split their chances equally between different songs. For Dean, it’s “Man I Need” all the way, leaving “So Easy (to Fall in Love)” aside. For Rodrigo, she had forgotten the optimistic delirium…