Hochul holds 14-point lead over Blakeman in final stretch of New York gubernatorial race

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is heading into the final days before Election Day with the wind at her back, according to the latest Siena University pre-election poll.

The Democratic incumbent leads Republican Bruce Blakeman between 54 and 40 percent in the Empire State gubernatorial race, a 14-point lead among likely voters, according to the survey released Wednesday.

Its lead increased from 9 points (50% to 41%) in last month’s Siena survey, a jump of five points.

“Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is widening rather than narrowing,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.

Meanwhile, in the race for state attorney general, Democratic incumbent Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%.

In the race for state comptroller, four-term incumbent Democrat Tom DiNapoli has the support of 59% of voters, compared to 32% for Republican Joseph Hernandez.

One of the poll’s key findings is that registered independents favor Democratic incumbents Hochul and James by 10 points and 11 points, respectively, over their Republican opponents.

Blakeman led among independents by 5 points last month.

In 2022, Hochul beat GOP rival Lee Zeldin by 6 points because he won over independent voters.

In the Empire State, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-to-1, a Republican candidate must dominate votes not affiliated with a political party to have a chance of winning a statewide race.

“And here’s the bottom line: For Republicans to win statewide, they need to win convincingly in the upstate and downstate suburbs to offset the Democratic tsunami that is New York City, and they need to win independents by a significant margin to offset Democrats’ two-to-one registration advantage,” Greenberg said.

“But with just a week to go, Blakeman and Hochul are running about even in the upstate and downstate suburbs, while Hochul is 11 points ahead of independents, Hochul leads 67% to 23% among likely New York City voters and splits the suburbs and upstate.”

Hochul also held a 14-point lead in an independent Quinnipiac University poll released last week, 55% to 41%. That survey had Blakeman leading among independents 51% to 44%.

However, internal polls conducted by Blakeman and those conducted by Republican-leaning groups say it is a tighter single-digit race.

The Siena poll also finds that voters are more unhappy with what is happening in the United States than in New York.

The poll found that 66% of voters said the United States was heading in the wrong direction, significantly higher than the 49% who said New York was on the wrong track.

A gender gap favors Hochul. She is supported by 59% of voters compared to 36% for Blakeman, a margin of 23 points.

Among the men, Hochul led by 6 points – 50% to 44%.

Hochul leads among Latinos by more than two to one, and among black voters, 81 percent to 16 percent, while splitting white voters with Blakeman.

There’s another good sign for Hochul as she seeks a second full four-year term. At least half of voters view it favorably for the first time in five years of voting in Siena.

In the latest poll, 51% of voters view it favorably and 45% unfavorably, a slight increase from 48% favorable to 46% unfavorable in September.

Similarly, 51% of respondents approved of the work she does, compared to 46% who disapproved, up a split last month.

As for Blakeman, 39% of voters viewed him favorably and 40% unfavorably, with the remainder undecided or having no opinion.

Regardless of who they support for governor, 68% of respondents thought Hochul would win, compared to 23% of those who predicted Blakeman would.

Voters were split on who would make New York more affordable: 30% said Hochul, 27% said Blakeman, and 35% said neither would do it.

A plurality of voters said New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s support for fellow Democrat Hochul was more positive (45%) than negative (30%), with the remainder saying it would have little or no effect or had no opinion.

Conversely, nearly half of voters said President Trump’s endorsement of Blakmen would be negative for the Nassau County executive’s campaign, while only 29 percent said it was positive — with the rest saying it had little or no effect or were unsure.

The Siena poll was conducted October 19-22 among 807 likely voters. The survey was polled with 494 voters via mobile or landline phone calls, while 313 were completed by SMS or via the internet. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Election day is November 3.