Hoping for a rapid drop in gas prices after the midterm elections? This probably won’t happen

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Democrats campaigned hard to lower prices, particularly at the pump.

But their success in winning back the House and Senate in the midterm elections is unlikely to translate into quick, meaningful relief for American drivers.

Several obstacles stand in their way: the new Congress will not meet until January; lawmakers have limited tools to lower fuel prices; and even an abrupt end to the war in Iran would not immediately lead to lower costs, experts say.

Gas prices have soared since the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran in February, largely because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route. The national average for a gallon of gasoline stood at $4.06 Friday, up from $2.98 two days before the conflict began, according to AAA.

The pressure to lower prices is clear. Exit polls show that a majority of voters were very concerned about fuel costs when they cast their ballots in the midterms.

Why prices are unlikely to drop immediately

Democrats swept to victory in a series of red states on Tuesday, sharply rebuking the Trump administration. As of Friday, the party was expected to win 54 seats in the Senate and 253 seats in the House, with some elections still uncalled.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer – both favorites to become majority leaders – have pledged to lower gas prices. “Relief is on the way,” Schumer said Wednesday.

But this relief may take time. The new Congress will not be sworn in until January 3, a little less than two months from now. Lawmakers will then need to choose leaders and finalize committee assignments before turning to their legislative agenda.

Even then, their options for lowering oil prices will be limited, given that these are set by the global market, NPR reported.

Over the past year, the White House has spearheaded most of the federal efforts to lower prices, including temporarily lifting diesel sanctions against Russia. Republican lawmakers floated several proposals, but divisions within the party derailed those efforts.

Democrats could also pressure Trump to end the war in Iran, which he says contributed to his party’s midterm losses. They could seek to defund the conflict or renew efforts to limit its military authority through war powers resolutions.

But Trump has the veto and has promised to use it. It also controls military operations and other executive actions that could affect oil supplies.

“President Trump still retains full discretion over military strikes, over blockades and sanctions, licensing, etc.,” Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told NPR.

Even an immediate end to the eight-month-old war in Iran would not return gas prices to pre-war levels overnight.

If traders were convinced that the conflict is over for good, crude oil prices could fall as much as $20 a barrel “in the next two or three days following the announcement,” Jaime Brito, executive director of refining and oil markets at Dow Jones Energy, told NPR.

But relief at the pump would take longer. Ships diverted to alternative routes would have to resume their usual journey through the Strait of Hormuz, which could create backlogs. The oil would then need to be refined and the fuel delivered to the market.

Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told NPR that crude prices could take about six months to return to pre-war levels, and gasoline and diesel would follow another month or two later — assuming the recovery goes smoothly.

Brito proposed a shorter time frame, saying gasoline and diesel could return to pre-war prices within three months of announcing a ceasefire or peace deal. But he stressed that the outlook was “optimistic”.

“I don’t want to say this, but you know, high gas prices could become a new normal,” Brito warned.

Experts warned that it could take months for gas prices to return to pre-war levels in May, when a peace deal between the United States and Iran was tentatively on the table.

“Even assuming a true and lasting end to the military conflict, it will still be several months before traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-war levels,” said Rob Smith, an analyst at S&P Global Energy. Axios at the time.

The reason for the delay has to do with global fuel movements and domestic retail prices, a phenomenon economists call “rockets and feathers.”

When oil prices rise, gas prices rise as well, which is the “rocket” part of the analogy. When oil prices fall, gasoline prices follow but fall at a much slower rate, representing the “feather,” the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis explained.