On the Week 5 edition of “Monday Night Football,” the Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills.
The Rams are coming off a too-close victory against the Philadelphia Eagles, having improved to 2-2 in the process. They haven’t really been the super team expected, although injuries have played their part. They have a chance to get over .500 if they can pull out a win against the Bills on Monday night.
The Bills, meanwhile, are coming off their first loss of the season, after losing a discouraging game to their division rival, the New England Patriots. The Bills had started 3-0 behind two explosive offensive performances in Weeks 1 and 2, then a comeback win despite five turnovers in Week 3. Their defense hasn’t been up to par and the Rams present a huge challenge.
Will the Rams leave the stadium with a winning record, or will the Bills bounce back from last week’s loss? We’ll know soon enough. Before we break down the match, here’s a look at how you can watch the match.
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Where to watch Rams vs. Bills live
When the Bills have the ball
The Bills gained over 400 yards and scored at least 36 points in each of their first two games of the season, playing impeccable football while posting wins over the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions. They didn’t turn the ball over at all and they looked like an absolute machine as they weaved their way through these two defenses with relative ease.
Over the past two weeks, things have been a bit more hectic, as the Bills didn’t exceed 350 yards in either game and turned the ball over repeatedly against the Los Angeles Chargers (five) and New England Patriots (two), scoring 24 and 26 points, respectively. They were lucky to escape with a win against Los Angeles, but weren’t so lucky against New England and suffered their first loss of the season.
The Rams, meanwhile, were torn apart by the division rivals San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, but have since been incredibly stingy on defense. They’ve held each of their last three opponents to fewer than 260 yards, and two of them to fewer than 185. Their pass defense, in particular, has been outstanding, but the run defense has also been pretty good since that first game. And they did it without Myles Garrett (who underwent knee surgery after the Week 1 game) and, last week, without Aaron Donald (who is expected to return Monday after a one-game absence).
Buffalo will be without wide receiver Josh Palmer on Monday night and could also be without No. 1 target DJ Moore. Moore is questionable after missing two of his last three practices. That could mean Josh Allen is left with just Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid as his passing game options, leaving the Bills shorthanded against what has been an excellent pass defense over the last three weeks and that brings back Jaylen Watson after missing most of the last two games.
Allen, of course, is capable of turning any group of competent players into a functional group, as we saw for most of the last two years before the Bills traded for Moore. It’s worth noting, however, that the Rams have completely shut down the tight end position so far this year, allowing 12 catches for a season-low 85 yards to players playing that position. So Kincaid might struggle to get going here, meaning the passing game would have to go through Coleman (who might see a lot of Trent McDuffie, who is playing at an extraordinarily high level) and Shakir. Allen can obviously make this work; it would just be more difficult than if he had Moore in addition to the other weapons.
James Cook – who led the NFL in rushing last season – is averaging an incredible, record-tying 6.0 yards per carry so far this year, and has scored two of four opponents for at least 135 yards on the ground. The Rams were crushed by San Francisco in Week 1, but have since severely limited opposing backs. However, they haven’t exactly faced a series of bruising games (Giants, Broncos, Eagles) in that span, so they might have a harder time containing Cook here. Starting Cook would obviously take some of the pressure off Allen and the potentially weapon-depleted passing game.
When the Rams have the ball
After racking up just 290 total yards in their Week 1 game in Australia, the Rams have racked up at least 415 yards in each of their last three games in the United States. The only thing that has kept them from truly exploding offensively is turnovers, as they’ve given the ball away twice in each of their games so far this season – including the last three where they’ve piled up the entire field.
After throwing 46 touchdowns against just eight interceptions en route to an MVP season a year ago, Matthew Stafford has already been picked off six times. Stafford completed just 61 percent of his passes, and he went from 7.9 to 7.3 yards per attempt. Stafford, of course, didn’t have Puka Nacua for two of those games, but even with Nacua’s return last week, he was just 62.7 percent completing and 6.2 yards per attempt while being held scoreless and intercepted twice. He just hasn’t reached last year’s level yet.
Buffalo’s defense, however, has been vulnerable through the air early in the Jim Leonhard era. The Bills got great passing from Greg Rousseau (who leads the league with six sacks and ranks third with 29 total pressures) and great inside play from Deone Walker (19 pressures and three batted passes), but the backfield has been shifty, with opponents totaling the sixth-most passing yards in the league through four weeks, along with 10 touchdown passes against just two interceptions.
Christian Benford’s return to the lineup after missing last week’s loss to New England will help, but the Bills could still have their hands full with Nacua and Davante Adams — the latter appears reinvigorated (career-best 10.3 yards per target) after repeated red-zone touchdown connections overshadowed a significant drop in efficiency last year. (He averaged just 6.9 yards per target, the fourth-worst mark in his 13-year career.) Adams was quiet last week against Philly (four catches for 32 yards on nine targets), but in the previous two games he caught 15 passes for 332 yards and two touchdowns in Nacua’s absence.
It’s worth noting that the Bills have given up the sixth-most catches, seventh-most yards, and second-most touchdowns to running backs as pass receivers so far this season. The Rams usually rarely target their running backs with the pass, but that changed with Kyren Williams. Watch out for him on underground roads.
Williams and Blake Corum were also very efficient on the ground, combining for 87 carries for 456 yards and three touchdowns. That’s an average of 5.2 yards per carry, and they each have a completion rate above 50%, while Williams leads the league with a 64.8% rate on his carries. The Bills have given up just 0.98 yards before contact per carry so far this year, according to Tru Media, but they’ve allowed 3.05 after contact thanks to one of the highest missed tackle rates in the league. They can’t allow Williams and Corum to escape them here.
Prediction
So far this season, the Rams have alternated between looking like the Rams team we expected and a very different version of that. Much of this is due to injuries that have led to inconsistency on both sides of the ball. The pass defense has been largely excellent, however, and the return of Aaron Donald should help the run defense. I don’t think Buffalo has anyone who can deal with the Puka Nacua-Davante Adams-Kyren Williams trio, so the Rams should put some points on the board here. Pick: Rams 28, Bills 24
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