How US oil companies profit $130 billion from Iran war as household bills rise | US-Israeli war against Iran

U.S. oil companies have made more than $130 billion in profits during the war with Iran, even as consumers pay much higher prices for key raw materials, amid fears that U.S. President Donald Trump will return to fighting after the midterm elections.

The estimate, published by The New York Times, is a conservative assessment based on the performance of 51 major U.S. oil and gas companies during the six months from April to September. By contrast, during the same period in 2025 – when oil prices were lower before the outbreak of the US-Israeli war against Iran – they collectively earned less than $47 billion.

But the gains come as the rising cost of living crushes consumers. Americans have spent an additional $150 billion on gasoline and diesel since the war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to an analysis by Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab, amounting to more than $1,150 per household.

This disparity has fueled a political debate over who wins and who pays the price of war. Responding to Trump, Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern wrote on

American Big Oil is able to profit where others lose

Naser al-Tamimi, a researcher at the Institute for International Policy Studies (ISPI) in Milan, Italy, said U.S. energy companies benefited from the war in different ways. “Crude producers are profiting from rising oil prices, while refiners are making bumper margins as supplies of diesel and other fuels tighten,” he said.

Additionally, “damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia, disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions-related trade frictions have intensified shortages,” while “relatively secure U.S. facilities and access to discounted crude are reinforcing these gains.”

ExxonMobil and Chevron, the largest U.S. oil companies, reported profits of between $10 billion and $15 billion on Friday. Although the gains were considerable, the New York Times found that they generally remained below 2022 levels, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed oil prices to around $100 a barrel and increased natural gas prices, from the current April-September average of $90.

U.S. refining companies also reaped bigger profits as global fuel supplies tightened and stocks were depleted due to severe infrastructure damage in the Middle East and Russia. Valero Energy’s third-quarter profit increased more than sixfold, reaching $6.83 billion. Phillips 66 reported its highest quarterly profit on record, with net income climbing to $5.62 billion from $133 million a year earlier.

Geoffrey Miller, geopolitical analyst and editor of the Gulf States Insights newsletter, said the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran “has created the biggest supply shock in global oil and refined products markets in years.”

Miller added that the war “has created a risk premium that U.S.-based operators are structurally well-positioned to monetize.” In contrast, Gulf producers have been “hard hit by both higher costs and risks, as well as physical damage, making it much more difficult for them to benefit from rising prices.”

Tehran responded to the US-Israeli attack by launching missiles and drones at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a US-registered independent conflict monitor, revealed that Iran and Iranian-backed groups in the region have carried out at least 172 attacks on non-military infrastructure in the six GCC member states. Despite Iranian officials’ claims that they were targeting U.S. military installations, they also hit energy infrastructure.

Iran has also blocked the passage of most ships through the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iranian oil and gas – retaliatory measures increasing the risks of transporting energy out of this crucial passage.

Continued pressure on the cost of living

Analysts have warned of continued volatility until a lasting political settlement between the United States and Iran is reached. Oil prices fell briefly over the summer after a memorandum of understanding was signed in June, but quickly recovered when negotiations broke down.

A more recent escalation of fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has further deepened the crisis: the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, which Saudi Arabia uses to export oil, is now also a theater of war.

“In the short term, windfall profits will only strengthen oil company balance sheets and shareholder returns,” Miller said. “However, these big profits come with a major caveat. Indeed, in the long term, high oil prices risk harming economic growth prospects and could even contribute to the onset of a recession, which in turn would likely lead to a reduction in oil demand” and accelerate the transition to renewable energy.

Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist in Rabobank’s global economics and markets team in London, said it was likely prices of key energy commodities would remain high given uncertainty over how long the war in Iran would last.

“Prices in all markets exposed to this global supply shock – including the US – will also face high prices next year, and consumers will continue to feel this price pressure unless governments intervene,” Schmit told Al Jazeera.

The U.S.-led war against Iran has increased the prices of oil, transportation fuels, gas, electricity and food. According to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Market Outlook, commodity prices are expected to rise 23 percent this year, as disruptions to grain shipments and the El Niño weather phenomenon also threaten harvests and food accessibility.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said on October 2 that global prices of food raw materials rose another 1.5% in September, after reaching their highest level since late 2022 in August, amid unfavorable weather conditions and trade disruptions in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump sought to blame rising global fuel prices on Ukraine and pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to end strikes against Russian refineries, even as Moscow continued to carry out attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The US president argued that a deal with Russia rolling back years of sanctions would help lower diesel prices.

In the Gulf, analysts say higher oil prices will benefit exporters able to maintain shipments, but prolonged insecurity will continue to threaten supply reliability and investments.

“Gulf producers face years of reconstruction and pressure to diversify export routes,” said ISPI’s al-Tamimi. “A diplomatic settlement could lower prices, while new US-Israeli attacks on Iran risk sparking a new regional war, further disrupting Hormuz and prolonging shortages. »