BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) – The final poll before Election Day shows Amanda Janoo ahead of Phil Scott in the race for Vermont governor.
Among likely voters surveyed, 51% say they have or will vote for Janoo, while 43% want Scott to return for a record sixth term. Just over 1,200 people participated in the survey conducted by the UNH Survey Center.
“All indications are that Amanda Janoo ran an effective campaign,” said Matt Dickinson, a political science professor at Middlebury College.
Dickinson said new UNH poll numbers reveal how tight this contest could be between political newcomer Janoo and incumbent Scott.
If the Democrat wins, it would be historic.
“We haven’t seen a defeated incumbent governor since 1962,” Dickinson said.
The poll shows affordability and high taxes are Vermonters’ top concerns. These are two issues that Scott has campaigned on and made his top priorities for years. But Dickinson said the Republican’s time in office could be part of the reason Janoo took an 8-point lead.
“Voters don’t feel like they’ve been resolved,” Dickinson said. “Phil Scott is being singled out. At least, according to the polls, enough voters are considering an alternative to that first place.”
But Scott, commonly referred to as the most popular governor in the country, still gets high marks here.
“His approval ratings in this poll are still pretty high. People like Phil Scott,” Dickinson said.
But he said people were unhappy with policies emanating from Montpellier.
Polls vary. Dickinson said this is just a snapshot in time and how they are conducted also makes a difference.
Reporter Darren Perron: The governor said he doesn’t have much confidence in the UNH polls, saying, quote, “This poll has been flawed my entire political life.” They never succeed. What do you say to that?
Matt Dickinson: Well, he’s right, historically the UNH poll has overestimated the vote totals for Scott’s opponents in the last two gubernatorial elections by huge margins… It may be that UNH changed their polling methodology here and they are right. But you can understand why Scott wants to downplay these results.
Dickinson said who is surveyed also affects the poll results. This new survey is younger.
“Younger voters support Janoo disproportionately, so depending on your assumptions about younger voters, you come to different projections about who is going to win this race,” Dickinson said.
Dickinson said this latest poll will motivate both campaigns to redouble their efforts to turn out their bases and reach persuasive voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots.
The previous poll published on September 24 gave Janoo a lead of six points, between 49% and 43%.
Among other recent surveys, a Vermont Public poll showed Scott leading by 10 points, 42% to 32%.
And the latest State Navigate poll gave Scott a lead of just three points, 49% to 46%.
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