In the United States, growth slowed down slightly in the second quarter due to the war in the Middle East

The growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States stalled in the second quarter, under the effect of the war in the Middle East, to settle at 1.5% at an annualized rate, against 2.1% in the previous quarter, according to official data published Thursday July 30. The American authorities highlight the annualized rate, which projects the development observed over three months over the entire year.

Compared to the first quarter, activity in the world’s largest economy increased by 0.4%. Analysts expected growth of 1.8% annualized, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch.

In detail, it remains largely supported by household consumption, which offsets a slowdown in investments, as well as the increase in imports. The latter are subtracted from GDP, even if they are precisely the sign of an economy which invests and consumes. This primarily concerns purchases of chips for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, estimates, in a note, the chief economist of Oxford Economics, Michael Pearce. These investments are mainly visible “in the increase in semiconductor imports, which means that the positive contribution (from AI) to the economy remains modest »he emphasizes.

Sharp drop in energy prices

Government spending, also in decline despite the war in the Middle East, is also weighing on growth. At the federal level, spending that is not linked to defense is the first to be affected. Household consumption remains solid, despite still high prices, even if the increase slowed in June, according to the PCE index, also published Thursday, to stand at 3.7% over one year.

The sharp drop in energy prices, particularly gasoline, as a result of the pause in the war in the Middle East and its positive impact on oil prices, largely explains this slowdown. The underlying index, that is to say excluding fluctuating prices of energy and food, is up only 0.1%, which is lower than analysts’ expectations, who forecast 0.2%.

Consumption was, moreover, mainly concentrated on non-durable goods, particularly health products, and vehicle purchases or repairs. On the services side, this particularly concerned leisure. It was also stimulated by reimbursements from the tax administration, which took place in the second quarter, and were more significant this year than in previous years.