Inflation under Trump is only about half that under Biden. Voters are still angry.

So far in President Trump’s second term, prices in the United States have risen only half as fast as during his predecessor’s four years in office. Yet Trump has a 72% disapproval rating on the subject and risks paying a heavy political price – just like former President Joe Biden – as voters directly link rising prices to the president’s policies.

During the last election cycle, prices for all items grew more than 20% during Biden’s termcausing widespread voter anxiety. This time around, price growth is significantly slower, increasing 5.4% in just under two years since Inauguration Day.

But a Yahoo Finance analysis of price data shows that a few major outliers have hit Americans’ wallets outsizedly, largely because of the surge in goods affected by the Iran war and tariffs.

Fuel oil and gasoline are perhaps the most dramatic examples, rising more than 30% from March in response to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

And voters have noticed, as poll after poll shows. A New York Times/Siena poll released this week found that 73% of likely voters disapprove of the president’s handling of gas prices.

Trump highlighted the importance of energy prices when he published an accusation this week that “Iran is doing everything it can to raise the price of oil before the US midterm elections.”

Trump has often pushed back against questions about high energy prices, saying they would no longer be a problem once the war in Iran ends.

Learn more: How oil shocks impact your wallet, from gas to groceries

Link between soaring prices and Trump’s policies

The link between price increases and Trump’s tariff policy is also clear.

Coffee prices rose nearly 23% during Trump’s second term (more than double the rate under Biden), while tariffs increased prices before Trump. removed many coffee-related tasks late last year in response to discontent among coffee drinkers.

Products like toys and shoes also grew rapidly as importers from China and elsewhere in Asia faced new tariffs. Toys are a particularly stark example, down 4.6% under Biden’s term, then up 7.8% so far under Trump’s term.

“Maybe the kids will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a few dollars more than they normally would,” Trump said in a rare acknowledgment of tariff-fueled price increases when pressed on the issue in April.

Other goods have moved in the opposite direction. Eggs jumped an average of 2.57% each month when Biden was in the White House, but fell 3.82% each month since Trump’s term so far, according to the analysis.

But tariffs remain in focus and unpopular, with Silver Bulletin poll average finding that 62.7% of Americans disapprove of how Trump has handled trade and tariffs, compared to 32.8% who approve.

Gas in the spotlight in the final weeks of the campaign

Despite its different roots, inflation has become the central political issue for Trump and his party — as it has for Biden and the Democrats — and comes as early voting is already underway for the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

And perhaps no individual price is more politically charged, for any president, than the price of a gallon of gasoline.

Trump tries to make his point while gas prices are on the rise. averages about $4.30 per gallon and diesel is on the rise after setting a record price last month, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Trump took several steps this week to try to rein in prices, including $8 billion to support farmers and invoking Defense Production Act Thursday to allocate new funds to increase refining capacity.

Asset touted the measures to Iowa voters Thursdaysaying the release of $150 million would lead to increased production of diesel and gasoline.

Yet he faces the inconvenient fact that his record on gas prices is now virtually indistinguishable from Biden’s.

Since January 20, 2025, prices have averaged $3.449 per gallon according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Under Biden, the average price was $3.455 per gallon during his four years.

Trump spent much of the last campaign promising the opposite, promising $2 a gallon of gasoline and the disappearance of inflation in almost every 2024 campaign speech.

This leads voters to blame the president for the situation.

This week’s national poll by the New York Times and the University of Siena found that 75% of voters view economic conditions as either fair or bad, and a solid majority place the blame on Trump.

As Ipsos also highlighted this week in a summary of recent discoveries: “American confidence in the economy has been poor since the start of the Iran war (and) now the bottom has fallen out.”

Ben Werschkul is Yahoo Finance’s Washington correspondent.