Iran pledges to respond beyond the Middle East and target financial assets; oil markets fear generational damage
The clock is ticking toward another round of fighting in the U.S.-Iran war, but this time the damage could be much more widespread, extending to new regions and different types of targets.
President Donald Trump said he is planning “another little epic furore” after Tuesday’s US midterm elections.
The United States has already sent a third aircraft carrier and a maritime expeditionary unit to the Middle East and has asked its allies in the region to prepare for a possible short but intense resumption of fighting, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The Iranian regime has also stepped up its threats about how it would respond, seeking to deter an attack by threatening disproportionate and unrestricted retaliation.
On Saturday, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei warned that the Iranian response would be “without any geographical limitations”, adding that “the database of targets should be updated so that the armed forces can touch all kinds of financial and non-financial assets”.
In recent weeks, Iran has warned that underwater internet cables and data centers would be targets. The foiled attack on a British air base used by US forces was also blamed on Tehran.
And although the North Koreans were blamed for the $6.3 billion cryptocurrency theft from Binance, it shows how vulnerable these assets are to Iran, which is also adept at cyberattacks. At the same time, the Pentagon is investigating whether hackers affected freezers on US military bases.
The RAND think tank noted last week that Iran’s hostile activity “extends globally,” with Hezbollah proxies in Latin America and plots against civilians in Europe.
“Liberated and intent on revenge, Iran is unlikely to be confined to a single corner of the globe,” the analysts write, arguing that the least bad option would be for the United States to continue its naval blockade and not launch further attacks.
Diplomacy continues, with the United States and Iran exchanging messages through intermediaries, but neither side has budged from its initial demands, dampening hopes of a breakthrough in the coming days.
Given the regime’s hardened rhetoric and threats of unlimited retaliation, experts now detect a shift in Iran’s tactics against the United States and see a greater chance of a resumption of war.
For Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at Crisis Group, the most important development was Khamenei’s message.
“This language suggests a new evolution in Iranian military strategy,” he posted Saturday on
Azizi also cited remarks by another senior official that Iran could launch a preemptive strike if preparations for hostile action were confirmed. Furthermore, Khamenei insisted that Iran would determine when and how any resumption of the conflict would end.
Iran is also wary of new diplomatic efforts, especially since previous attacks took place even as negotiations with the United States were underway earlier this year and last summer.
“Iran appears increasingly determined to prevent a repeat of previous scenarios in which negotiations or temporary ceasefires were followed by a resumption of military conflict,” Azizi added. “From Tehran’s point of view, the goal is to make another attack so costly and unpredictable that Washington should reconsider this option completely.”
Meanwhile, Iran still has thousands of missiles and drones in its arsenal that could inflict catastrophic damage on its neighbors in the Persian Gulf region.
Indeed, US interceptor stockpiles have already been depleted to critically low levels, while Iran’s new missiles have demonstrated the ability to evade air defense systems.
Given the damage to the region’s energy infrastructure early in the war, it cannot absorb another round of fighting, according to Amir Handjani, a board member of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Indeed, even US military bases in the Middle East have been heavily damaged by Iranian drones and missiles.
“Gulf producers have spent five decades persuading the world that their supplies could withstand regional wars. Eight months of fighting on two fronts have significantly weakened that position. A negotiated end to the war would give the region time to rebuild,” Handjani wrote.
“Another cycle, on top of the war between the Saudis and the Houthis, would cause damage to infrastructure and importer confidence that markets are likely to maintain for a generation. »
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