Israeli elections to test Benjamin Netanyahu’s ability to retain power

Tens of thousands of people marched in Tel Aviv last night to demand a response from Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to the failures that led to the terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023. “We cannot be a dictatorship!” said a woman. “And we cannot let these criminals run our country.”

The first legislative elections since the attacks will take place on Tuesday. Thirty-nine parties are in the running, but essentially only one man is on the ballot: Netanyahu. For three decades, Netanyahu – known here as Bibi – dominated Israeli politics.

And in a market outside Tel Aviv, opinions on the prime minister are as varied as the deals on offer here.

When asked who he would vote for, restaurant owner Benny Abraham replied: “Likud and Bibi Netanyahu.”

“Bibi can handle the whole world,” Abraham said. “Bibi is charismatic. He has a strong voice. The world loves him.” He added affectionately: “He is the king of Israel. »

Many others, like Liat and her husband Sharon, could be lumped into the “everyone but Bibi” camp. “I don’t hate him, OK, I think he’s done good things for Israel, but no more,” Liat said.

Sharon described Netanyahu as “more or less a very good politician, but not a (good manager).”

The division around Netanyhu comes from controversial changes marginalizing the country’s justice system; an ongoing trial on corruption charges; and the allegations that he failed to heed earlier warnings about October 7.

While some people say they feel Netanyahu is protecting Israel, Margalit Moses, 80, told us she doesn’t think the prime minister is protecting her. Moses was kidnapped by Hamas during the October 7 attack. Nearly a third of the residents of his kibbutz, Nir Oz, were killed or captured. October 7 pushed many Israelis further to the right – but not Moses.

“I hope people understand that we need to change government so that the new government is more middle-of-the-road, or a little bit to the left,” she said. “We’re going to change Israel’s mind about the Arabs. If we can make peace with them and live in peace with them, that, to me, is very important.”

Netanyahu’s campaign presented these elections as existential for Israelis. At a crossroads less than a kilometer from the Gaza Strip, political posters read “Right or Palestine”, with members of opposition parties represented on the left.

Leading the opposition challenge is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff. His son was killed fighting Hamas shortly after the start of the Gaza war. Eisenkot left Netanyahu’s government in 2024, accusing him of prolonging the war and delaying a hostage deal to appease his right-wing coalition partners.

“For Israelis, (Eisenkot) represents the anti-Bibi, something more pragmatic,” said political analyst Dahlia Scheindlin. She says that during President Trump supported NetanyahuEisenkot is unlikely to radically change course on the issues that most concern Mr. Trump and the United States: the wars in Gaza and Iran.

Asked if Eisenkot represents a substantial change in terms of policy, Scheindlin replied: “I think for Israelis the biggest change he represents is that they expect him to form a government without religious extremists or right-wing ultranationalist populists, and without Jewish supremacists.” recruit the ultra-orthodox. And these are two major issues in Israeli life, particularly for the opposition. »

Polls give Eisenkot’s party a clear lead, but to form a government it would likely need to form a coalition with at least four other parties.

Despite what the polls say, Scheindlin believes there is still a chance that, a year from now, Netanyahu will still be prime minister: “Absolutely. He is the master of political engineering and coalition negotiations. He has more experience than anyone in running the political system through legal means. And so, we could certainly find ourselves in a situation where Netanyahu is prime minister in a year.”

Produced by Christine Romo and Dustin Stephens. Editor: Ed Givnish.