A month before the November midterm elections, President Donald Trump is underwater in 39 states and every major battleground state, according to a new poll.
The figures come from Civiqs’ online tracking system, based on 133,869 responses from registered voters collected between January 20, 2025 and October 2, 2026.
A News week The analysis compares the latest state ratings with those recorded when Trump began his second term, with net approval calculated as approval minus disapproval.
Nationally, 34 percent approve of Trump’s job performance and 60 percent disapprove, giving him a net approval rating of -26.
Key Points
- All major battlegrounds are negative, led by Georgia at -25, Michigan and Nevada at -24 and Pennsylvania at -22.
- Kentucky recorded the largest decline since January 2025, falling 33 points from +23 to -10.
- Wyoming remains Trump’s strongest state at +18, followed by North Dakota at +15.
- Young voters, independents and graduate students remain among the groups most opposed to Trump.
Why it matters
Presidential approval is not an election prediction, but it helps define the environment in which candidates compete. With control of Congress at stake on November 3, Trump’s negative ratings could affect Republican turnout, campaign messaging and close elections in contested states.
Use the map below to explore Trump’s net approval rating in each state a month before the midterm elections.
Trump is positive in 10 states, tied in one
Trump’s remaining positive ratings are concentrated in Republican-leaning territory.
Wyoming is its strongest state at +18, followed by North Dakota at +15 and West Virginia at +12. Arkansas is +9, while Idaho is +8 and Alabama is +6.
South Dakota is +5, Oklahoma is +4, Kansas is +3 and Utah is +2.
Montana is the only related state, with 46 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval.
Even within the positive group, Trump’s standing has weakened since January 2025. Wyoming went from +47 to +18, North Dakota from +34 to +15, and West Virginia from +35 to +12.
What the demographics show
National population numbers help explain the state-level map.
Among voters aged 18 to 34, 20 percent approve of Trump’s performance while 73 percent disapprove, a gap of 53 points. Among people aged 35 to 49, 26 percent approve and 66 percent disapprove.
Older voters are less negative, even if Trump remains underwater. Among voters aged 50 to 64, 44 percent approve and 51 percent disapprove. Among people aged 65 and older, 44 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove.
Independents disapprove of the plan 65 percent to 27 percent, while Republicans approve 78 percent to 12 percent. Female voters disapprove of the plan 65 percent to 29 percent, compared to a 54 to 39 split among male voters.
Education presents another divide. Trump’s approval stands at 24 percent among college graduates, 32 percent among college graduates and 37 percent among non-college graduates, although disapproval exceeds approval in all three groups.
Black voters disapprove of her 90 percent to 7 percent, Hispanic voters 70 percent to 26 percent, and white voters 52 percent to 41 percent.
All major battlefields are underwater
The battleground map remains difficult for Trump with a month to go before Election Day.
His latest net grades are:
- Arizona: -18
- Florida: -16
- Georgia: -25
- Michigan: -24
- Nevada: -24
- North Carolina: -15
- Ohio: -17
- Pennsylvania: -22
- Wisconsin: -18
Several of these states were positive or evenly divided at the start of Trump’s term. Florida went from +9 to -16, Ohio from +8 to -17 and Nevada from 0 to -24. North Carolina went from 0 to -15.
The numbers don’t directly measure support for congressional candidates, but they indicate the political conditions Republicans are fighting in during the final month of the campaign.
Where approval fell the most
Trump’s net approval is lower in every state than it was on January 20, 2025.
The most significant declines include:
- Kentucky: +23 to -10, down 33 points
- Wyoming: +47 to +18, down 29 points
- Oklahoma: +31 to +4, down 27 points
- Tennessee: +25 to -2, down 27 points
- Texas: +6 to -21, down 27 points
- Idaho: +34 to +8, down 26 points
- Alaska: +9 to -6, down 25 points
- Ohio: +8 to -17, down 25 points
- Florida: +9 to -16, down 25 points
- Montana: +25 to 0, down 25 points
- Nevada: 0 to -24, down 24 points
Many of the steepest declines occurred in states that initially gave Trump comfortably positive ratings, rather than in Democratic strongholds where opposition was already entrenched.
Deep blue states remain firmly negative
Trump’s weakest ratings remain concentrated in Democratic territory.
Hawaii has the lowest net approval at -58, followed by Maryland at -52 and Vermont at -51.
California and Massachusetts are both at -47, while Connecticut sits at -46.
Washington records -42, New York -39 and Oregon and Rhode Island -38.
The movement in these states is less dramatic than in some Republican areas, because Trump began his second term with approval already near its floor.
What the White House says
The White House has downplayed the importance of opinion polls, instead pointing to Trump’s 2024 election victory as the clearest expression of public support.
Spokesman Davis Ingle repeatedly cited the fact that nearly 80 million voters supported Trump as proof of the administration’s mandate. “The final vote was on November 5, 2024,” Ingle said, saying Americans elected Trump to deliver a “popular, common-sense agenda.”
Ingle said Trump remains focused on creating jobs, reducing inflation and improving housing affordability. The White House says the administration has already made “historic progress” and “this is just the beginning as its agenda continues to take effect.”
News week emailed the White House for further comment Friday morning.
Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Sam Stevenson and Anthony Murray.
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