Middle East oil exports exceed pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows | Oil and gas news
IRGC commander says oil flows through US-supervised route to Hormuz are ‘negligible’.
Published on October 5, 2026
Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels four days a week in the last week of September, according to provisional data from ship tracking company Kpler.
However, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ali Fadavi, said in a television interview on Sunday evening that only three to four million barrels of oil per day (bpd) now pass through this route, calling this amount “negligible” compared to pre-war traffic.
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Fadavi said that, for the first time, no US ships were present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Arabian Sea or even the northern Indian Ocean and that US warships are “100% vulnerable” to IRGC attacks.
Kpler data shows the region’s crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, reaching 19.5 million to 22.5 million bpd.
At that time, Iran claimed success in its attacks on shipping — including U.S. Navy ships — near the Strait of Hormuz, saying the strikes had forced Washington to move its warships away from Iranian shores.
Before the start of the US-Israel war against Iran, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026.
According to Kpler data, the overall total of crude, petroleum products, chemicals and non-gaseous liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30.
On October 1, the seven-day rolling average for crude exports was 18.5 million b/d. This includes transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
The number of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also increased in September to its highest monthly level since February.
The figures exclude any ships that may have crossed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders turned off to avoid detection.
The British agency Maritime Trade Operations has reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
On Sunday, Iran’s top negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States agrees to Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen the waterway.
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