• When Donald Trump and the Republicans become one
It’s a dilemma that bothers political parties in every American election: to win, is it better to electrify your supporters so that they go to the polls on D-day or convince undecided people and independents to vote for them? For the Midterms 2026, the legislative elections which will take place on November 3, Donald Trump chose the first option.
And for this, the American president is making a bet: banking on his own popularity, as if the vote were a referendum on his person. “I ask you to act as if I were on the ballot,” he said to the thousands of red “MAGA” caps gathered in Dallas on Wednesday September 9 for an unprecedented Republican convention.
Party conventions are usually held every four years before the presidential election. Holding this gathering two months before the Midterms is therefore a way of nationalizing these local and disparate elections and linking them to the figure of the tenant of the White House.
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And to further motivate his supporters, Donald Trump made them a shocking promise: a check for $5,000 per American adult in the event of a Republican victory in both houses of Congress. A measure that could cost some $1.3 trillion.
Over the next few weeks, Donald Trump will travel in person to contested states to support Republican candidates in the crowds he loves. He thus hopes that the voters of his “Maga” base, who historically travel less for the Midterms than for the presidential elections, will not forget to go and vote.
The paradox is nevertheless glaring. Not all Republican candidates, especially in moderate states, dream of seeing their names associated with that of Donald Trump at the moment. The American president’s popularity remains below 40%. Its war in Iran and its customs duties weigh heavily on the American wallet. Inflation remains a real problem in supermarkets, exorbitant interest rates make access to property impossible for part of the middle class and the American debt is exploding.
Enough to scare away undecided or moderate voters, who are often found in residential suburbs and who are nevertheless valuable in certain very close races. However, if Donald Trump appears fictitiously on the ballot, their vote could then be transformed into a sanction against the Republicans. Worse, it could even further mobilize some Democrats angry at the White House.
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Republican candidates, like Susan Collins in Maine, or John Sununu in New Hampshire, therefore avoided going to the Dallas convention this week. They distance themselves from the billionaire on their campaign sites or in their speeches on the ground. It is better for them that the election remains local. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins, who has always cultivated her political singularity, willingly prefers to talk about lobster fishing rather than Donald Trump’s customs tariffs which are particularly harmful to her border state with Canada. “There is absolutely nothing positive to say about it,” she recently said about the surcharges imposed on Ottawa.
Republican leaders are not unaware of the risk that Donald Trump poses to the party by attempting to nationalize the vote. At the same time, they are trying a second strategy to attract moderates and undecideds: that of the scarecrow. “The Democrats are the party that hates America and those who built it,” Vice President JD Vance accused Thursday evening at the Dallas convention. “What I ask of you is to be aware of the contrast with these radicals and to recognize the achievements of the last eighteen months,” he added. “Don’t turn the country over to a bunch of lunatics because you don’t agree with a measure here or there,” implored JD Vance, addressing undecided voters.
“Radicals”, “socialists”, “communists”, “woke”… There is no shortage of qualifiers for Republicans to describe Democrats. Across the United States, while local candidates are attacked over the White House’s economic record, this scarecrow strategy helps divert attention and present the conservative party as the more reasonable of the two. A tactic that worked in 2024.
• Focus on a close race: in Texas, Paxton vs. Talarico, the battle for the Senate
The city of Dallas was not chosen at random. Obviously, Texas is a must-win state for American conservatives. But this year, the lights are red for a Senate seat that could swing to the left. Republican Ken Paxton is slightly ahead of Democrat James Talarico in the polls. The prospect of such a feat has put the national spotlight on this thrilling race which could, Democrats hope, also influence the duel for governor.
Result: at 37, James Talarico has already raised several tens of millions of dollars and is ahead of his rival whose image has been tarnished by scandals, although the checks have started to flow this week for Ken Paxton. Donald Trump and his super PAC have put their hands in their pockets, but so has Elon Musk, a sign that conservative leaders are worried. It must be said that James Talarico’s atypical profile is attractive: the grandson of a Baptist pastor, he studied theology and worked as a professor in disadvantaged colleges. The importance he places on religion, highly appreciated in Texas, allows him to gain the trust of the independent and moderate electorate. Proudly Texan, he also doesn’t reject all the clichés of his state – rodeo, barbecue and cowboy boots. On the contrary, he embraces them, while infusing them with a message of inclusiveness, which allows him to avoid entering into the game of the cultural war that divides Americans. One of his punchlines? “Texas is not just a state. It’s a state of mind.”
• Fetterman’s surprise appearance in Dallas, or the threat of a weakening of the Democratic camp
John Fetterman, a Democratic senator from Pennsylvania who continues to quarrel with his own camp, appeared in a video broadcast during the Republican convention in Dallas. He castigated what he considers to be the extremism of certain left-wing candidates and sided with “common sense”, a term often used by conservatives to differentiate themselves from the “radicals” of the opposite camp. Beyond his speech, his very presence raises the question of the future forces present in the Senate. If John Fetterman assured that he would remain a Democrat, nothing says that he will continue to vote with his camp in the upper house. However, the latter could barely change in November.
• Update on the polls: the House leans Democratic, the Senate remains hotly contested
– The lower room:
After the electoral redistribution carried out by the two parties this year, only 38 seats out of 435 in the House of Representatives remain “competitive”, according to Cook Political Report. Experts agree on around 20 extremely close races, and polls predict that Democrats could reclaim the majority.
– The upper room:
In the Senate, where a third of the 100 seats are up for renewal this year, the races to be scrutinized amount to less than ten. Democrats need four more seats to swing the majority. It’s not impossible but, for the moment, the polls are too close to predict a winner.
• Ad of the week
The midterm elections are an opportunity for American political communicators to express their creativity… for better and for worse.
Let’s stay in Texas. On Wednesday, Republican Ken Paxton’s camp aired a spot generated by artificial intelligence. It shows a fake James Talarico sitting at his desk, modifying the Bible: “In the beginning, God was non-binary and not a Christian, and God said, ‘There will be six genders!'”.
Ken Paxton thus accuses the Democrat of using religion to spread a radical cultural agenda. But the video quickly backfired: “Texans are fed up with these AI-generated ads that try to mislead voters,” denounced James Talarico. Killing two birds with one stone, he then linked this ad to the broader data center debate. “The reason Ken Paxton uses AI is because he’s being sold to the AI and data center industry.” However, if there is one subject that unites American voters of all political stripes today, it is the growing rejection of data centers, whose excessive consumption of energy and water is causing outcry.
