NFL Bold Predictions for Week 4: Raiders Upset Chiefs, Kyler Murray Sets Record

It’s seemingly impossible to get a feel for the NFL these days, and that certainly proved true in the Cleveland Browns’ last-second 27-24 home victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on “Thursday Night Football.”

The Browns are now 3-1 and in sole possession of first place in the AFC North for the first time with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, and they traded him four years ago. The last time they were in first place in the division was September 22, 2022, when Watson was still suspended by the NFL for his legal problems off the field. How miraculous has their 3-1 start been this season? They have won three straight games, all as an underdog for the first time since 2001, according to CBS Sports Research, and Watson is now only the second Browns quarterback with a three-week winning streak since 1950. Only he and Brian Sipe in 1979 have done so as Cleveland’s quarterback during that span.

So what other crazy things could happen in Week 4? Let’s take a look at five bold predictions.

Raiders upset Chiefs and make NFL history

The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) against the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) in Week 4 mark the renewal of a classic division rivalry. However, there are a few new twists in a series that has been dominated by Kansas City since the arrival of three-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are 13-2 in Mahomes’ 15 starts against the Raiders, with Mahomes averaging nearly 300 yards per game (295.1), along with 36 touchdown passes and just five interceptions.

What are these twists and turns you ask? Sunday marks the first game in series history where both teams are 3-0 or better. Yes, the Raiders, who were drafted first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, are 3-0 despite the fact that first overall pick Fernando Mendoza has yet to take a snap in the regular season. That’s because Kirk Cousins, 38, co-leads the league in touchdown passes with nine out of three games. This makes Cousins ​​only the second quarterback 38 or older in NFL history with at least nine touchdown passes in the first three games of a season, joining Tom Brady in 2015 and 2021.

While Las Vegas has cultivated its 3-0 record despite the league’s easiest schedule (the Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints are a combined 1-8), they have done so in dominant fashion. The Raiders lead the NFL in turnover margin (+5), takeaways (9) and opposing fumbles recovered (5).

The Raiders will upset Mahomes and the Chiefs to take sole first place in the AFC West heading into Week 5. Everyone knows Mahomes is a late-game magician, but Las Vegas’ defense can say the same thing this season. They are the first team with no points allowed and more than seven points to take away in the fourth quarter in three games since the 1992 Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that started 3-0 under rookie head coach Bill Cowher.

While Las Vegas’ Klint Kubiak is also a first-year head coach, Maxx Crosby, the Raiders’ five-time Pro Bowl defender, is no stranger to Mahomes’ elimination: His 6.0 sacks of the Chiefs quarterback are the most of any player.

Crosby and the surprisingly frisky Raiders will shock the world Sunday with an upset win over the Chiefs to become the first team in NFL history to start a season 4-0 after back-to-back 13-loss seasons.

Kyler Murray sets Vikings’ single-game completion percentage record against Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins (0-3) defense is historically bad. They are the only team recorded (since team sacks became an officially tracked statistic in 1963) to allow a completion percentage of 70% or higher (80.3%) and have no sacks in the first three games of a season, according to CBS Sports Research.

That’s not entirely surprising, considering they have the least experienced roster – 608 career starts – of any team to start a season in history (this data goes back to 2000). An NFL record 61% of their salary cap is dead money, as they pay more for players not on their roster ($184 million) than for players on their 53-man active roster ($103 million).

Such horrible defense will lead to a historic afternoon for Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray. Despite Murray’s 52.9 percent completion percentage, which ranks 35th out of 37 quarterbacks to have thrown at least 30 passes this season, he will set the completion percentage in a Minnesota game on Sunday against the Dolphins. That record currently stands at 84.4%, broken in the first week of the 2017 season when then-Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford lit up the New Orleans Saints for 346 yards and three touchdowns on 27-of-32 passing.

Murray has the courage to achieve such a feat. In Week 10 of the 2024 season, Murray shredded the New York Jets for 266 passing yards and a touchdown while completing 91.7% of his throws (22 of 24). He’ll complete at least 85 percent of his passes Sunday in a cruise control win over the Dolphins to rewrite the Vikings single-game record book.

Aaron Glenn’s Jets end 20-game INT-less streak against Ben Johnson’s Bears

It’s a battle of Dan Campbell’s former Detroit Lions coordinators in Week 4! Former offensive coordinator and now head coach of the Chicago Bears, Ben Johnson, replaces former defensive coordinator and now head coach of the New York Jets, Aaron Glen. These two know each other incredibly well after working together on Campbell’s staff in Detroit for four seasons (2021 to 2024).

That’s why it will be shocking when Glenn’s Jets end their 20-game interception-less streak against Johnson’s Bears, the longest such streak by any team in NFL history. With Caleb Williams sidelined, veteran Case Keenum shredded the Philadelphia Eagles defense for 247 passing yards and two passing touchdowns with a 70.6% completion percentage (24 of 34).

However, New York will end its streak without an interception on Sunday. The Jets have transformed almost their entire defense this offseason, with nearly 85 percent of their NFL defensive snaps this season coming from players in their first or second year with the team, according to CBS Sports Research. Glenn will hit Keenum (or Tyson Bagent) and Johnson with an unexpected block on Sunday, prompting the offense to put the football in the hands of a Jets defender.

Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson breaks free for 35+ yard TD on zone run

Defensive zone runs in 2025 were the Achilles heel of the Buffalo Bills defense. They allowed 4.9 yards per carry in zone last season, which was the second-most in the NFL. In 2026, under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, Buffalo is allowing just 3.0 yards per zone carry, fourth-fewest in the league according to Next Gen stats. He fills a third of those points, 33.3% to be exact, on a no-win, no-loss basis (the best rate in the NFL), with league sack leader Greg Rousseau accumulating a team-best three.

That won’t matter to New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson. He has five career rushing touchdowns of 35+ yards, the second most in a player’s first 20 career games. Although New England uses zone runs at a league-low rate of 28.4 percent, according to TruMedia, Henderson will break free for a rushing touchdown on a zone run against the Bills of at least 35 yards.

Colts force guard Marcus Mariota into first two interceptions of 2026

Marcus Mariota is coming off his best game in ages following the Washington Commanders’ 33-31 victory over the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. He threw for 183 yards and three touchdowns on 19-of-31 passing, and he sealed the game with a read-option keeper reminiscent of his Heisman glory days at Oregon. Week 3 was Mariota’s first game with at least three passing touchdowns and no interceptions since 2019, when he was still a Tennessee Titan.

That’s not good news for an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks as the third-highest scoring defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 30.3 points per game, and the worst total defense in the league, giving up an average of 417.3 yards per game over three weeks. That said, they will be the first defense to intercept Mariota in 2026, and they will do it twice. For two weeks, the Colts had no interceptions. In Week 3, they took Seahawks Pro Bowl quarterback Sam Darnold twice, including a pick six in the fourth quarter.

Mariota has been the fifth most pressured quarterback in the NFL over the past five weeks, having people on his grill on 44.2% of his losses. He would succumb to that pressure, led by three-time Pro Bowl Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, and throw his first two interceptions of 2026 against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.