NFL Predictions: 3 Bold Takes for Bills-Patriots in Week 4

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots renew their rivalry Sunday afternoon in a key Week 4 AFC East showdown. The Bills have the opportunity to improve to 4-0 while handing the Patriots another loss that further hurts their chances of repeating as AFC champions.

It’s common knowledge by now that the NFL is a week-to-week league, which means it’s wise to consider teams 0-0 in any given game. Anything can happen, and overlooking New England despite their 1-2 record would be foolish. After all, this is a team fresh off a Super Bowl appearance. Many will remember that New England had a similar start last season. However, the Patriots, like the Bills, are not the same team in the 2025 campaign.

What does all this mean for Sunday? There are a few things that could happen, which include a few of my bold takes below.

Josh Allen destroys Patriots defense

Have you ever seen one of Josh Allen’s lockdown plays? You know the type – most often seen during playoff season. That’s what I’m channeling here for his Sunday work. I don’t know if he’ll have an equal counterpart on the Patriots sideline, similar to those matchups featuring co-star Patrick Mahomes, but I expect Allen (and Joe Brady) to be fully prepared to make an example of Mike Vrabel’s team.

What’s at play here is his mediocre performance in Week 3, but also something else… from last season. There’s no way Allen forgot that Drake Maye was in the Super Bowl eight months ago. If anything, it will likely become a huge source of motivation for Allen. The first step is to beat the Patriots in Week 4 (and ideally again in Week 13), then finish ahead of them to reclaim the AFC East.

The only way the Bills can beat the Patriots is if Allen plays his best football. Ultimately, it will likely take a season-long effort to achieve this. Is there a better player than Allen for this role? As Sean Murphy pointed out in his most recent edition of “5 Bills to Watch vs.

Here’s what I see happening on Sunday…

He scores at least one touchdown as a runner. Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in three straight games to start the 2026 season, and Buffalo might need some similar wizardry from him on the goal line in Week 4. Remember the last time New England came to Highmark Stadium and Maye ran at will against Buffalo’s defense? You know who else remembers that? RIGHT.

It’s naturally not bold to say that Allen is scoring more touchdowns in any capacity. That’s not all he’ll accomplish Sunday afternoon, either. But it’s a pretty solid bet with FanDuel Sportsbook, where a “2 leg Same Game Parlay” featuring Allen and running back James Cook III as any-time touchdown scorers is at +249 (at press time). FanDuel also lists odds featuring Allen seven separate times as part of an “Either Player – First TD Scorer” scenario.

A key for Allen will be eliminating turnovers. Buffalo was lucky to escape with a win against the Los Angeles Chargers after Allen turned the ball over three times. New England’s defense is much better than the Chargers’, with the Patriots currently ranked fifth overall in total defense (LAC ranked 23rd). The Patriots have allowed a total of six touchdowns in three games – matchups featuring quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers and Trevor Lawrence.

Despite what happened to Allen in Week 3, I see him meeting the defensive challenge that New England presents. They’re a thorn in his side now thanks to last season, and I wouldn’t say Allen single-handedly threw for more yards than New England allows on average (278.4 yards per game).

Thanks in large part to Maye’s recent struggles and the Patriots’ injury issues in the secondary, FanDuel oddsmakers consider Allen likely to finish with the most passing yards (-136). But how many meters allows for a bold prediction? Allen’s current over/under is set at O/U 242.2 (-114 at FanDuel), and I like that he flirts with over 100 more, such as 350 passing yards. That equals the second-worst odds currently with FanDuel, where bettors are calling for Allen to throw for over 350 yards at +880. Football Revenge is a dish well complemented by plenty of yards.

Allen will also throw at least two touchdowns, because one thing we all know is that football’s vengeance is best served by touchdowns.

Khalil Shakir leads all WRs in Week 4

There was a time not so long ago when Khalil Shakir was Allen’s favorite target. This may be a time where much of the Bills mob would rather move on from the past due to the lack of options beyond Shakir at this point. However, Shakir helps lock up Allen early.

This season, Shakir has taken a back seat in terms of primary targets, but he has been used more as a downfield receiver. It’s almost as if Shakir has become a forgotten man on the offense. His production and efficiency rate is down, with only eight catches on 15 targets for 94 yards and no touchdowns (per Professional football reference).

Last season, in three games, Shakir caught 11 passes on 15 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. He is not that A far cry from last season’s pace, but I think the longer passes thrown at him have reduced Shakir’s production against outside defenders. They also chewed up his targets between the distance and depth markers.

To counter the issues that arose in Week 3, I see Brady looking to get Allen and Shakir back on the same page. That means some bubble screens and short passes for him in the slot, spaces where Shakir creates YAC with his magical work in space. To keep the Patriots honest on defense, I expect the Bills to use Shakir at all levels of the field on Sunday (but hopefully not as a backfield runner in suboptimal situations).

The Chargers have done well in taking away bread-and-butter Allen-to-Shakir plays, but expect them to return this weekend. In general, there should also be plenty of opportunities for some deep shots since New England will be without cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder injury), and I see that benefiting Shakir both directly (downfield) and indirectly (classic Shakir plays).

Trust me, it’s a bold take. At the time of publication, FanDuel has Shakir’s over/under at O/U 38.5 (-114). This is a relatively low threshold, representative of his start to the season starting with a maximum of 50 yards (week 1), then 38 yards (week 2) and only six yards (week 3).

In two games against the Patriots last season, Shakir totaled 11 catches (14 targets) for 110 yards. Could he find his way to this type of production alone in the final game?

Consider the options for “Most Receiving Yards” in Bills-Patriots currently with FanDuel Sportsbook, where Shakir has only the fifth-best odds (+700) behind teammates Moore (+320), Kincaid (+360), as well as New England players Mack Hollins (+460) and Romeo Doubs (+550).

Then remember that Moore is dealing with an AC joint sprain, Kincaid was injured to some degree in Week 3, and the guy throwing footballs for New England looks broken. Shakir helps bring out the best in Allen, and that’s what should happen Sunday when he finishes as the best receiver in the game.

Overall, this is an attractive bet to make for any of the players listed, all of whom have plus odds with FanDuel:

Greg Rousseau ties or sets a new personal best for sacks/season in Week 4

In the midst of a Renaissance season, the AFC’s new September Defensive Player of the Month has been reinvented under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. I really enjoy discussing Greg Rousseau. I’m the first to admit how wrong I was about his game-changing potential, mostly thanks to the way former head coach Sean McDermott deployed him in the trenches. With Rousseau now in an outside linebacker role, offenses often don’t really know how to handle his unique skillset.

Rousseau has six sacks, three forced fumbles, 12 quarterback hits and eight tackles for loss in three games. Those numbers are close to or better than many of his totals over the previous five seasons in McDermott’s system.

Yes, teams will start plotting specifically to cut Rousseau, but new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is sure to find ways to free him. The man affectionately known as “Groot” is expected to continue playing at an All-Pro level in Week 4.

Last season, in two games against New England, Rousseau had a sack in each game, five total hits and two tackles for loss. The new 3-4 system favors Rousseau much better, so expect a productive first game against this year’s Patriots team. I like the chances that Rousseau matches his career high in season sacks (8) by grabbing at least two against Maye on Sunday.

If these predictions aren’t bold enough for you, sound off in the comments section below about what you see happening during Bills-Patriots in Week 4!

Think you have what it takes to play for the Buffalo Bills in 2026? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook now and test it out!