They have “recovered” or “deoccupied” at least 85 km² in Donbass. The Ukrainians revealed the extent of the territory that they claim to have liberated from any Russian presence during the surprise announcement of the launch of Operation Vivaldi on Tuesday September 15.
The Russian army has “suffered a devastating blow”, said Andriy Biletsky, commander of the 3rd Army Corps, in a video detailing this operation which he describes as a counter-offensive.
Lyman, bulwark against the Russians
The former MP specified that these recent military successes, which began several weeks ago, have already made it possible to eliminate “1,500 Russian soldiers, 12,000 enemy drones and hundreds of armored vehicles and artillery systems”.
Ukrainian forces made these territorial gains around Lyman, a devastated town that had more than 20,000 residents in 2022 and today has only a handful. The city, located in the far north of the Donetsk oblast in the contested Donbass, was taken by Russian forces in February 2022 before returning to the fold of Ukraine after the vast counter-offensive of November 2022.
This area which protects the part of Donbass still controlled by kyiv is of critical importance. If the entire region around Lyman falls into the hands of the Russians, “it is an essential bulwark on the road to Kharkiv which collapses”, underlines Huseyn Aliyev, specialist in the war in Ukraine at the University of Glasgow.
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Cover image: Military escalation between Russia and Ukraine © France 24
In the current Russian strategy to overcome the obstacle of the fortified belt around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the capture of Lyman would also cost Ukraine dearly. But the Russians “understood that attacking these strongholds head-on was suicidal and they therefore opted for an encirclement strategy which requires passing through Lyman to the north”, explains Ryhor Nizhnikau, Ukraine specialist at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Operation Vivaldi thus makes it possible “to strengthen the defensive lines to better secure this network of fortified cities”, summarizes Will Kingston-Cox, specialist in Russia and the war in Ukraine at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona.
Andriy Biletsky, however, promises much more. “Vivaldi composed the Four Seasons, and here we are only at the first,” insisted this soldier without giving more details.
Something to surprise. Indeed, the general of the 3rd Army Corps seems to suggest a much larger counter-offensive still to come. It is difficult to imagine as Ukrainian resources, particularly in men, are limited.
True-false counter-offensive?
In fact, the very idea that Ukraine could launch a counter-offensive limited to the Lyman region may be surprising. From a military point of view, we should not imagine that a counter-offensive in 2026 could resemble major operations mobilizing large numbers of troops to create a breach in enemy lines and reverse the dynamics of the fighting, assure the experts interviewed.
Indeed, drone warfare has transformed the front into a “kill zone”, a territory where it is impossible to advance in large numbers without risking being killed on sight from the sky. The Russians are thus only advancing by eating up the kilometers thanks to small units carrying out infiltrations discreetly and under cover.
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Consequence: the Ukrainian counter-offensive essentially boiled down to “dislodging from these areas these small Russian units which did not have the means to strengthen their position”, explains Huseyn Aliyev.
This fall cleanup goes hand in hand with “drone operations against the supply lines that support these Russian incursions,” adds Will Kingston-Cox. In other words, Operation Vivaldi is not only about driving these Russian soldiers out of the Lyman region, but also about cutting the logistics lines that supply them.
Quite the opposite of the vast Ukrainian counter-offensives of fall 2022 or summer 2023.
Operation to promote the founder of the Azov regiment
Andriy Biletsky was only appointed head of the 3rd Army Corps a year ago. And he’s not just any commander. Charismatic, he was best known for founding the famous, and often controversial, Azov Regiment, before leading the 3rd Army Corps. This ultra-nationalist leader, famous in Ukraine, cut his teeth in the regular Ukrainian army, notably at the head of the 3rd Assault Brigade which distinguished itself in 2023 during the Battle of Bakhmut and whose role was crucial in the defense of the regions around the fortified belt. “It is one of the best equipped, best trained and most capable elite units in the Ukrainian army,” assures Huseyn Aliyev.
This is what earned Andriy Biletsky his promotion to head the 3rd Army Corps, responsible for defending a large part of the front: the Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Lyman, Koupiansk axis.
The launch of Operation Vivaldi thus includes “part of a communications campaign to strengthen the credibility of the new commander and demonstrate to Volodymyr Zelensky that he was right to appoint him”, assures Ryhor Nizhnikau.
Operation Vivaldi also involves, for Andriy Biletsky, taking advantage of the vast Ukrainian campaign of bombing of infrastructure in Russia, assures Will Kingston-Cox. “It is a logical continuation of these strikes which weakened the supply networks, particularly in fuel, for the front,” assures this expert. Why remain purely on the defensive, if these bombings weaken the Russian capacity to support the war effort 100%?
However, we should not overestimate the impact of this Operation Vivaldi, despite the declarations of Andriy Biletsky. “Ukraine does not have the human resources to carry out a vast counter-offensive in the long term, which would risk exhausting the Ukrainian army very quickly,” believes Ryhor Nizhnikau.
As a result, “we should not expect this operation to be a game-changer, and it does not prevent Russia from continuing to gain ground on other portions of the front,” says Huseyn Aliyev.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian capacity to retake territories in the Donbass contradicts Vladimir Putin’s speech on the inevitability, in the more or less short term, of the total takeover of Donbass by the Russian army.
