Nothing says “get the leather helmets, it’s old-fashioned fall football” like the Browns versus the Steelers in Cleveland, with fewer than 39 points on the board. Two teams are trying to convince the world that their winning records are real, and whatever your thoughts, one of them is going to a great place to compete in the second season.
Browns vs. Steelers fantasy football game breakdown for Week 4
Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview for Week 4
I’m not crying over the Bengals’ loss to the Steelers, you are. Alright, maybe I am too. And that’s not to say that old man Aaron Rodgers still can’t throw a pretty deep ball (oh my goodness, can he), but without several game-changing mistakes, we’re telling a completely different story heading into Week 4.
passing game
You’d think a quarterback with the sixth-most dropbacks/game (40.7) would garner more fantasy interest, but this black-and-yellow passing game remains a no-go for me. Rodgers went for (292-3-1) on Sunday, despite completing just 56 percent of passes — without a single pass catcher picking off more than six targets or making a fourth-down grab. No thanks.
DK Metcalf finally found the end zone and is still running every possible route – but that doesn’t really hide the crappy advanced metrics of his draft day cost (19.2% target/route, 0.78 yards/route). Michael Pittman’s return also hurts everyone, especially if Mike McCarthy continues to provide high-value specialty plays for Ben Skowronek and Darnell Washington that help absolutely no one.
Speaking of the latter, no matter how fun it is to watch the giant known as Darnell Washington crush defenders running down the field, that same action will cannibalize TE1-type volume in Pat Freiermuth’s direction. The Muth can still be started at the moment, but I would start looking for replacements due to sharing targets – namely this new chemistry building with Roman Wilson. Yes, the former post-hyped Michigan third-round sleeper assumed the role of all downs in 11 personnel, gaining six targets/game, responsible for the 11th most uncompleted air yards in the NFL. Timing starts in fantasy will be difficult, but there is potentially some contingency/dynasty value here.
Run the game
Pittsburgh sidelined Rico Dowdle with a shaky toe, which opened the floodgates for Jaylen Warren. Finally allowed to shine solo, Warren absorbed 90% of the backfield opportunities and 100% of the production (20 touches, 176 yards from scrimmage). Dowdle’s status remains uncertain after back-to-back DNPs, and the odds of him being able to play are diminishing to avoid being too risky given the short turnaround time.
Regardless, Warren is a start, as well as a decent buying asset for the non-zero chance of leaving Dowdle in his fantasy dust. Not to mention it’s an ugly division matchup against the Browns’ bottom 5 D in yards after contact/carry (3.35) and explosive rush rate (10.0%). It looks like Warren’s long-awaited breakout may finally be upon us.
- To start: Jaylen Warren (RB11), DK Metcalf (WR30)
- Sit: Aaron Rodgers (QB29), Michael Pittman (WR60)
- Sleeper: Pat Freirmuth (TE21), Roman Wilson (WR75)
Cleveland Browns Fantasy Preview for Week 4
To all Browns fans, especially big Deshaun Watson fans (is there such a thing?), I’m sorry. I was definitely wrong, not only about Cleveland’s collective viability, but also about Watson’s athletic ability after a second Achilles injury. It’s hard not to come away at least somewhat impressed by his ability to escape and turn the usual sack into a sensational first down – one point in the first quarter particularly reminded me of his glory days in Houston.
passing game
For all my roses already thrown at Watson’s feet, there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned before making any moves to launch him into fantasy. For starters, the off-target rate is as high as ever (14.6%), while an extremely shallow yardage/air attempt count (6.0) rejects the worst rate of throws beyond the marker in the league (28.6%). Are things better than expected? Yes. But are they good? No.
Usually, low aDOT offenses with a running quarterback throw a wet blanket over most, if not all, associated fantasy assets. However, some noteworthy consolidation is underway here, especially if your team has been bitten by the injury bug. Watson attempted 30 passes on Sunday, targeting just three WR/TEs total: KC Concepcion (9), Harold Fannin (9) and Denzel Boston (4). Start the PPR’s top two with some degree of confidence, with Boston’s deep threat role (5 targets/game, 80 air yards/game) making it a boom-or-bust fantasy play.
Run the game
I wish I could share the same optimism for the Browns backfield…but I can’t. Just when we thought Quinshon Judkins had started to play a truly significant role, earning more passing game work by catching five balls in Week 2, we get the rug pulled out from under us. A sad trombone sounds all around.
Having to rely solely on point rushing behind an objectively bad O-line responsible for what is easily a bottom-5 rushing attack (-0.31 EPA/rush, 3.5 yards/attempt, 40.0% completion rate, 4.0% explosive rush rate) will keep Judkins relegated to the RB3 discussion. Startable, but capped as long as Raheim Sanders dresses.
- To start: Quinshon Judkins (RB22), KC Concepcion (WR46), Harold Fannin Jr. (TE9)
- Sit: Deshaun Watson (QB25)
- Sleeper: Denzel Boston (WR43)
Next week’s bold headline today
I think having to choose between the two two-win teams wasn’t easy. Pittsburgh’s front seven creates enough pressure to sufficiently disrupt Watson’s inaccuracy, and the Browns’ run-heavy approach struggles to defend Rodgers’ foul play balls in a close loss.
Gn sports
