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Less than 24 hours before the start of the midterm elections, the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets had Democrats winning all seven key Senate elections.
Prediction market odds indicate how much money is placed on a specific candidate. When traders buy contracts (the prediction version of a bet), the odds move based on the volume of contracts going one way or the other. At the time of writing, for example, James Talarico (D) had a 76% chance of winning the Texas Senate race against attorney general Ken Paxton (R). Contracts for Talarico’s win were valued at $0.76, meaning 76% of Kalshi’s traders thought he would win. On Polymarket, Talarico had identical odds.
For the first time all election season, the odds have reversed in the Iowa Senate race. Traders of Kalshi and Polymarket fielded a Democratic candidate Josh Turek a 52% chance of beating Rep. Ashley Hinson. As of Sunday, Kalshi had Hinson at 57%, while Polymarket’s odds for Hinson were 56%.
In Maine, Troy Jackson (D) remained a strong favorite against the incumbent senator. Susan Collins among traders. The odds for Kalshi and Polymarket gave him a 73% chance of taking Collins’ seat.
The Kansas Senate race has also seen a recent turnaround. Last week, Senator. That of Roger Marshall (R) the chances reached 62% on Adam Hamilton (D). Since then, traders’ opinions have changed dramatically and give Hamilton a 63% rating on both markets.
that of Michigan Abdoul El-Sayed (D) was also a big favorite against the Republicans. Mike Rogers. El-Sayed maintained his lead throughout much of the election campaign, and his chances even increased by a few percentage points after his main opponent. Haley Stevens astonishing decision to go against his own party to support Rogers.
Traders were also much more confident in the Democratic Party’s chances in Ohio, giving Sherrod Brown 71% odds on Kalshi and Polymarket against the senator. Jon Husted.
Then there was Alaska. Last week, the Democratic Party faced a wave of scrutiny after a New York Times the report alleged that the party actively recruited a man named Dan Sullivan confuse voters at the polls. The plot, according to the report, was a deliberate attempt to take votes away from the incumbent senator. Dan S. Sullivan and give the candidate Marie Peltola an easier path to victory. Believing it to be a criminal act, Trump filed a lawsuit to delay the certification of the state’s election results. This lawsuit, however, was dismissed.
Despite all the controversy, Democrats are still favored to win the Senate seat. Traders from Kalshi and Polymarket gave Peltola a 72% chance of winning.
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