- “It’s an insurance policy. We’ll be there for Darline,” said one Republican briefed on the Senate Leadership Fund’s plans.
The shift to spending in conservative South Carolina comes after Senate Republicans announced they would no longer fund ads in the swing state of North Carolina, where the GOP’s Michael Whatley is trailing former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in polls.
- Democrats, meanwhile, are reallocating resources in a way that reflects their optimism four weeks before Election Day.
- The leading Democratic Senate super PAC canceled about $1.1 million in ad bookings in North Carolina, Semafor reported, based on its belief that Cooper is well-positioned to flip the seat currently held by retiring Republican Thom Tillis.
Zoom: Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, was appointed to her seat in July at the request of President Trump, a friend of her brother. Graham faces many challenges:
- She is a relatively poor fundraiser compared to her Democratic opponent, Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who outspends and outspends Graham, according to the South Carolina Post & Courier.
- Unlike his brother, Graham shields himself from the press and has demonstrated a relative lack of grasp of foreign policy, causing him to stumble during a GOP primary debate.
- Graham won that primary against Rep. Ralph Norman with 52% of the vote after getting help from Trump. This left bad feelings with Norman, who supported her but briefly suggested he would run a write-in campaign for the November 3 general election.
Zoom out: Voter anger over high prices and Trump’s declining popularity have helped create a political landscape in which the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC must play defense across the country.
- He’s trying to support incumbent Republicans and their challengers, from Alaska to Ohio to Texas, where he recently invested $131 million over 17 days to boost Ken Paxton’s campaign against Democrat James Talarico.
- “We’re not taking anything for granted. We won’t be caught off guard in any of these races,” the source said.
- The money for Graham will be spent primarily on television ads to “remind voters that Andrews is a Democrat.”
- Democrats have not won a statewide race in South Carolina since 2006.
In figures: Tighter-than-expected polls conducted by two companies that typically survey Republicans raised concerns last week in GOP circles.
- A Trafalgar survey showed Graham getting 43% and Andrews 42%, a statistical tie.
- InsiderAdvantage also produced a poll showing an essentially tied 1-point race, with Graham at 46% and Andrews at 45%.
- Earlier in September, the Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports showed Graham up by 5 points.
Catch up quickly: Andrews’ campaign has flown under the radar compared to that of Jaime Harrison, the Democrat who challenged Graham’s brother for the seat in 2020.
- Harrison raised $100 million for that race, but because he was the former chairman of the state Democratic Party, it was easier for Republicans to make the race a partisan contest.
- In contrast, Andrews introduces herself as “mother and doctor.” His campaign was largely funded by $3.6 million in campaign contributions pooled by 314 Action Fund, a political committee founded to elect Democratic candidates from STEM fields.
What they say: “South Carolinians don’t know who Darline Graham is or what she believes — she’s avoiding reporters, avoiding voters, and lying about Annie rather than doing her job,” an Andrews spokesperson told Axios.
- A spokesperson for Graham did not respond to a request for comment.
- Trump gave a preview of the bare-knuckle attacks to come on Monday when he spoke to Truth Social and used a slur against transgender people to attack Andrews while accusing him of a host of liberal positions.
- “South Carolina must show in the next election that this is not for them,” Trump wrote.
The Action Fund 314 responded to the president in a statement Monday evening, calling him “perverted” and saying he “resorted to juvenile name-calling and insults because his candidate cannot win on these issues.”
Hans Nichols of Axios contributed to this story.
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