Republicans fight red-state midterm chaos with hundreds of millions in late money
Republicans are flooding House and Senate elections with an unprecedented flood of late ad spending as the party tests whether hundreds of millions of dollars can offer it some relief from the eroding political environment that threatens long-held Republican states and districts.
Since the beginning of September, Republicans have booked more than $700 million in new ad bookings for the congressional elections alone, according to an NBC News analysis of data from AdImpact, a political ad tracking company. This is new money in addition to what had already been committed for these races in advertising reservations made during the summer.
For comparison, Democrats set aside more than $430 million in new ad bookings for those races last month.
The disparity is greatest in the battle for the Senate majority, where nearly 7 in 10 new advertising dollars come from Republicans. That’s due to a massive, late investment in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico is threatening a long-held Republican seat and the Republican Party has invested nearly $150 million in new advertising dollars to support its candidate, Ken Paxton.
The gap is narrower in the House, where just under 6 in 10 of these new ad dollars come from the Republican Party.
Democrats still have a number of advantages in their camp, including the eroding position of President Donald Trump and his party among voters, the Democrats’ well-funded candidates and help from outside groups. Candidates can also take advantage of a rule that allows them to buy TV ads at lower rates than outside groups.
But the color of the flood of outside money shows how Republicans, increasingly on the defensive in both the House and Senate, are able to lean on their financial advantage in hopes of defying political gravity, while party strongholds like Texas and even Kansas appear more competitive than usual.
“With the environment not on our side and a sitting presidency, the three things we have going for us are good candidates, a good card and a lot more money than them,” said a Republican strategist involved in Senate races.
Everything about the recent flood of ad spending is bigger in Texas, where a new group called Texas PAC set aside more than $115 million in the last month alone in an effort to bolster Paxton, the state’s attorney general. Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in Texas in more than 30 years.
But because Republicans spend largely through outside groups, they have to pay extra on each ad rates, while Talarico’s campaign is able to capitalize on those lower ad rates for candidates. This means that the spending disparity is greater than the actual number of ad servings or reach.
Senate elections in Ohio and Michigan also attracted more than $75 million in new advertising dollars in September, mostly from Republican-aligned groups. They include a super PAC funded by cryptocurrency interests, Trump-aligned super PACs, and other groups aligned with the national party or Senate Republican leadership.
Again, both states have Democratic candidates — former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and former county health official Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan — who have spent a lot of money on their advertising campaigns.
No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have achieved more than $150 million in new advertising bookings since the beginning of September across dozens of races. Although the groups have not confirmed where they are getting their war chest from, the New York Times recently confirmed that MAGA Inc., Trump’s main super PAC, is primarily funding this effort with the hundreds of millions of dollars it has taken in over the past few years.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, chairman of the GOP’s campaign arm in the Senate, touted the party’s spending advantage as key to helping Republicans maintain their majority and gave credit to the political operation to Trump’s deep pockets to ensure the flow of money continued.
Scott told reporters that he met last week with Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, and that Wiles’ message was “money is not going to be our problem.”
“It’s exciting news for me,” Scott said, later adding, “Knowing that they’re going to fully invest in these races is incredibly helpful, because money is king.”
“We finally have a financial advantage through MAGA Inc. It’s a powerful tool that provides us with the firepower to really share our message,” he said.
Democrats take solace in knowing where the new spending is going. The vast majority focuses on states and seats that Trump won in 2024, including congressional districts that Trump would have won by double digits that year, such as North Carolina’s 1st District, Texas’ 35th District, and Alaska’s at-large congressional district.
Money is also going to races that Republicans felt comfortable in until recently, like the Senate race in Kansas, where the Senate Republican super PAC just reallocated millions originally intended to be spent in North Carolina.
“The money is not due to this wave of Republican momentum; the money is due to a wave of Republican panic,” said Lauren French, communications director for the Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with the Senate Democratic leadership. “Voters don’t like what they’re being sold, including the message, the candidates and the president.”
Meredith Kelly, a longtime Democratic strategist who works on House and Senate races, said, “When you’re defending yourself in such deep red territory, the technical term for that is, ‘You’re screwed.’ »
“The Republicans, if they have an advantage, it’s that they have more money, and they’re putting that money to the test right now after Labor Day,” Kelly added. “However, the big question is: Is this money enough to stave off the collapse of Donald Trump’s coalition?”
Still, Democrats aren’t comfortable seeing their party spend so much.
“It’s a huge problem, and it’s going to be an ongoing problem, and you see all the high-value donor lists for both parties and we get overwhelmed every time,” Kelly said. “This creates such an initial advantage for Republicans that we have to close the gap in a variety of ways: candidate money, better message, better candidates. We prepare for an uphill battle every time because of the strength of Republican donors in terms of the billionaire class.”
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