Republicans watch with concern as Trump’s approval rating drops in own internal poll

Four weeks before Election Day, a growing number of House Republicans privately fear their chances of retaining the majority are slipping and have begun focusing on how to limit the size of a potential Democratic wave.

Inside the Republican-held House, Republicans have watched with concern as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted in their own internal polls — including in the traditionally red field — over the past two weeks, according to more than a dozen people familiar with the discussions.

Now the House GOP is entering triage mode. Republicans are considering pulling money from once-competitive races they view as too difficult to win, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey and an open seat in Nebraska, according to three people familiar with the talks.

But the Republican Party has a huge financial advantage, and not all Republicans are pessimists. Speaker Mike Johnson is “absolutely still confident” he can hang on to the House and won’t take any seats “off his board,” according to a political aide. Johnson just returned from New Jersey and is planning a rally with Miller-Meeks in Iowa next week, according to his team.

The House GOP’s campaign arm also flatly denies that the majority is lost.

“Thirty days later, House Republicans are on the attack, and we are outspending Democrats in the final stretch of every race,” Will Kiley, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement, adding: “House Republicans will defy history and we will win.”

The growing anxiety among Republicans, however, reflects a grim national environment that has been ringing alarm bells throughout the vote, with Senate Republicans suddenly forced to fight back in red seats like Kansas — with control of both chambers of Congress up for grabs. Trump, too, is campaigning nationwide, with stops in more competitive Ohio, as well as deep red territories like Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama.

“There are a lot of close races and it’s hard to make a prediction,” retired Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse said this week of his party’s chances, but acknowledged: “Affordability is a big issue. People see gas prices every day.”

While Newhouse said his party has worked to address cost-of-living issues, he noted, “There are a lot of things that make it difficult right now for rural America — which I can speak to specifically — but for Americans across the country.”

Many Republicans acknowledge to CNN that the damaged domestic environment – fueled by soaring diesel prices, stubborn inflation and hardening opposition to the war in Iran – is largely beyond their control at this late stage in the race. They say their strategy now focuses on how to limit Democrats to the smallest majority possible — with the goal of making governing virtually impossible for a potential House Speaker, Hakeem Jeffries, next year.

Johnson’s historically narrow majority — the smallest since before World War II — has been a major headache for GOP leaders, with the Louisiana Republican unable to exert control of the floor on numerous occasions. Republicans want Jeffries to face the same problem.

Several people said their goal was to keep Jeffries’ margin to less than 10 seats. If that happens, one GOP strategist summed it up: “What are you going to do there?

Few Republicans believe it will be a total wipeout for their party, in which Democrats won more than 30 seats. And some believe it is still possible to maintain their narrow majority, especially if gas prices fall significantly over the next four weeks. Party leaders are particularly confident about two incumbents in purple seats: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania and Mike Lawler in New York, both in districts won by Kamala Harris in 2024.

But Republican Party members and aides are increasingly concerned about protecting parts of the country that haven’t elected Democrats to the House in decades — seats that Trump won by double digits and that are suddenly in play with incumbents who rarely face competitive general elections.

As of early October, Republicans are still planning to use a huge financial advantage to prop up their most powerful incumbents, while increasing pressure on their top offensive targets, like Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th District, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd — and drowning Democrats in spending.

The huge cavalry of GOP super PACs, meanwhile, is helping build a firewall around their reddest territory to stave off disaster, with Trump-linked groups spending on seats once considered a swing for Democrats but now in play, like Colorado’s 5th District, Kentucky’s 6th District and Montana’s 1st District.

“The environment is bad but Democrats still have to win on GOP ground,” one GOP member said.

If House Republicans want to pull off an upset in November, they say it will depend on the party’s enormous financial advantage and its aggressive gerrymandering campaign.

Republicans are spending more than Democrats in the 10 most expensive House races on advertising between now and Election Day, according to AdImpact data. That includes multimillion-dollar benefits in Democratic-held seats like Rep. Don Davis in North Carolina’s 1st District and an open seat in Maine’s 2nd District.

Much of the GOP spending is concentrated in newly redrawn seats in Texas and Florida, whose fate is still very uncertain, especially for incumbents like GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas. But if even a handful of those seats tilted in favor of the Republicans, that could offset losses elsewhere.

“Ultimately, redistricting could be a lifeline one way or the other — either minimizing losses or potentially retaining the majority,” a GOP leadership aide told CNN.

Then there are the handful of temporary seats where Republicans are feeling more optimistic because of Democratic clashes in the primaries, which have left their candidates more vulnerable. That includes California’s 22nd District, Michigan’s 7th District, and that open seat in Maine — where progressives beat the establishment’s favorite centrists.

Even in a tough midterm environment, Republicans are turning to issues they believe give them an advantage with voters — with taxes, immigration and law enforcement featuring prominently in their campaign ads.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s tax cuts on tips, overtime and Social Security were the fulfillment of a key promise of the 2024 campaign, and it’s something that has been emphasized. Republicans also criticized Democrats for their opposition to the legislation.

“Zach Nunn voted for the biggest tax cut ever for the middle class,” reads an ad from the Republican incumbent in Iowa’s competitive 3rd District.

An analysis of AdImpact data found that about a third of Republican ads during House races in September focused on tax policy, making it the top topic tracked by the company.

Another key argument for Republicans is immigration, which ranks fourth. “Stelson wants you to pay for the health care of criminal illegal immigrants,” says an ad from the Republican Party’s main super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, targeting the Democrat from Pennsylvania’s 10th District.

Republican advertisers have also produced dozens of ads touting their support for law enforcement and accusing Democrats of being soft on crime. Many begin with grisly accounts of local crimes, juxtaposed with Democrats’ rhetoric calling for criminal justice reform. “Attention all criminals, we have some good news for you: Christina Hines, the liberal Ann Arbor prosecutor, is running for Congress,” says an ad running in the race for Michigan’s 10th District.

Other specific issues have also animated these key elections, including Republicans’ sustained focus on transgender policies, a topic they have used to attack Democrats since it proved effective in the 2024 campaign. As a result, Democrats are increasingly taking to the airwaves to rebut critics, such as Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th District.

Republicans say Democrats’ quick response to attacks on transgender policy shows it’s an effective issue — and believe it’s made a dent in internal polling.

“Here’s the truth: I voted with Republicans to exclude transgender ideology from our schools because parents know what is best for their children and boys should not participate in girls’ sports,” Kaptur says in an ad.

This story has been updated with additional information.