Scientists say the scorching summer Europe has just emerged from could be the deadliest this century. Two new studies in the journal Nature Health estimate that heat has killed more than 50,000 people in 854 cities and towns in 30 European countries, about triple the number that would be expected in a world without human-caused warming. Using climate models and local data on demographics, access to health care and socioeconomic conditions, the researchers calculated deaths linked not only to heatstroke, but also to heart and lung problems worsened by extreme temperatures. New York Times reports.
The total far exceeds the estimates for 2003 and 2022, which were previously the hottest summers in Europe. Scientists link the increase to persistent heat domes supercharged by greenhouse gas emissions and say the sharp increase cannot be explained by population growth alone. Western Europe experienced its hottest summer on record, according to CNN. Temperatures were about 5.2 degrees above average from 1991 to 2020, and some cities had temperatures more than 21 degrees above normal. “In much of western and northern Europe, our infrastructure is simply not designed to cope with the temperatures we are currently experiencing due to the effects of human-caused warming,” said lead author Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, according to the AP.
Italy, France, Spain and Germany recorded the most deaths. More than half of those who died were aged 85 or older, but more than 800 people aged 20 to 44 were also killed. A new UN report warns that the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is now out of date. Trump administration policies are blamed for contributing to this estimate. “We are far from being on track to limit the worst consequences of climate change, and governments must understand that without faster action and coordination, the situation will only get worse,” Barnes said.
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