ST. LOUIS — Is this Tyler Toffoli’s comeback season?
I’m not just saying that because the San Jose Sharks winger scored a goal against the St. Louis Blues in a 3-2 overtime win. I’m not saying that just because Toffoli has two goals in four games to start the season.
The eye test and athlete micro-stats suggest, and yes, a little caveat on the sample size, that the four-time 30-goal scorer is doing some key under-the-radar things he did in 2024-25, when he led the Sharks with 30 goals, things he wasn’t doing as much last season, when he slumped to 19 goals.
“I thought Toff was really good tonight,” head coach Ryan Warsofsky said.
But first, let’s talk about the elephants in the room on Thursday.
The pass from Toffoli (73) to an empty point – intended for Mason Marchment (27) or Kiefer Sherwood (44) in the middle? – during a power play early in the third period, which led directly to Dillon Dube’s shorthanded shot.
Also, for the record, I found this third-period power play change to Jacob Trouba-Sherwood-Marchment-Toffoli-Alex Wennberg, who surrounded Wennberg’s top-unit forward guard with four new teammates, to be a bit extreme, regardless of the outcome. Given the game so far, maybe I would have just swapped Toffoli and Igor Chernyshov to bumper? I thought Chernyshov really struggled against the Blues.
Toffoli’s turnover was bad, but for what it’s worth, hockey tactics guru Jack Han put it more on Sherwood (44) for essentially occupying the same passing lane as Marchment (27). According to Han, the Sharks “regrouped” there, due to a spacing issue on the power play. If Sherwood had held back from diving for the offense so aggressively and taking the same spot as Marchment, Toffoli’s missed pass would have allowed Sherwood to get back on defense, making it a 2-on-2 St. Louis instead of a 2-on-1.
Regardless, a fair assessment of a player in a match involves more than just his worst (or best) play. The bigger question is: Was the player net positive? What is an error set?
And resoundingly, Toffoli was net positive on Thursday, both above and below the surface.
The obvious: Toffoli scored a key goal as the San Jose Sharks battled through the first half of the game and were outshot 15-9.
“It was just a greasy goal to get there, get to the tough areas, and obviously Toff has been doing it for a long time,” Darnell Nurse said. “That’s why he had such a great career, and it got us started.”
Then, after his PP gaffe in the third period, it was his soft pass to Sam Dickinson (6), on Michael Misa’s forecheck (77), which led to Collin Graf’s equalizing goal (51).
What’s not so obvious: Would you believe it if I told you, according to Stathletes, that Toffoli led the Sharks with a 95.24 pass completion percentage? He missed one pass all night, and it went into the back of his net.
It’s like being a quarterback and being perfect in a game except for one pick-six.
To give you more context on this stat: On Thursday, Misa was middle of the pack among Sharks forwards with a pass completion percentage of 77.78. Chernyshov was last with 52.94. This matches my eye exam.
In 2025-26, Alex Wennberg led the Sharks forward with a 78.98% pass completion rate, Sherwood was middle of the pack with 71.99 and Ty Dellandrea was team worst with 67.12.
As for Toffoli, he finished seventh among San Jose forwards with a 75.03 completion percentage in 2025-26, fifth in 2024-25 with a 76.86.
Tonight, with the exception of one pass, it was Toffoli at his best, playing fast, accurate passes and attacking inside.
Which explains why I think Toffoli could experience a renaissance.
Last year, statistically, Toffoli didn’t attack as much inside. His 0.71 high-danger scoring chances per 60 ranked him ninth among San Jose Sharks forwards, well behind team leader Will Smith’s 1.24.
That was nearly half his rate from 2024-25, when Toffoli led Sharks forwards with 1.41 high-danger scoring chances per 60. For what it’s worth, he also led New Jersey Devils forwards in that category in 2023-24.
This key statistic, for a scorer making his living in dirty areas, suggested that the 34-year-old winger was perhaps losing momentum, that he was perhaps not getting into his positions with the same regularity.
But thanks to Toffoli, he became lighter over the summer, losing 13 pounds.
So, with a small sample size, he’s back to leading San Jose with a 2.23 high-danger scoring chance per 60.
He won’t keep up that pace, but even in a no-hit loss like Monday’s 5-0 shutout of the Dallas Stars, it was Toffoli who had San Jose’s best chance.
If Toffoli gets his share of chances, which he didn’t have last year but is now, he will score. He has done this to the tune of 311 career goals and counting.
It’s not always going to be pretty with Toffoli (and his skating). But he’s been effective so far this year and is showing early signs of a potential comeback campaign.
Gn sports
