Ships transit the Strait of Hormuz off the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas on September 7, 2026.
Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images
Commercial ships will likely continue to navigate the perilous Strait of Hormuz despite this week’s sinking of a Singapore-flagged container ship, as high energy demand in the Middle East and lucrative shipping opportunities keep some operators ready to brave escalating attacks, maritime experts said.
The latest attacks on two Singapore-flagged container ships have heightened concerns about the safety of commercial shipping through one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. But analysts say the incidents are unlikely to halt remaining shipping activity through the strait, even if major container lines remain largely sidelined.
Collin Koh, a senior research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said shipping companies would likely continue to seek opportunities to transit the strait despite increased security threats.
“I don’t think in the short term, Singapore-flagged ships or Singapore shipping companies would necessarily avoid taking transit if the opportunity arises,” Koh told CNBC.
His comments follow attacks on two Singapore-registered container ships, GFS Pride and GFS Giselle, this week. The GFS Pride sank after being hit by a projectile and caught fire, while the GFS Giselle was damaged. The crew members of both vessels were declared safe.
The number of crossings across the Strait of Hormuz fell to 131 in the week ended October 14, from 176 the previous week, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler, although the drop cannot be attributed solely to the latest incidents.
Dimitris Ampatzidis, head of maritime risk and compliance at Kpler, said the attacks highlighted Iran’s continued ability to threaten commercial shipping, with risks extending beyond oil and gas transportation.
Commercial incentives persist
Koh said shipping companies around the world have continued to seek opportunities to sail the strait since the conflict began, with some operators willing to accept higher risks and costs.
Strong demand for oil, particularly from Asia, continues to drive tanker operators to transport energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, even as security threats complicate travel.
Some operators might be willing to take a chance, even if it means paying extra, Koh said.
Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan gave an example of how rising oil prices could make travel through Hormuz commercially attractive despite the dangers.
Speaking at the Milken Institute’s Asia Summit last week, Balakrishnan recounted a conversation with an unnamed Gulf counterpart who said his country was earning more from oil exports than before the war by operating a “Hormuz Shuttle” involving about 20 very large crude carriers.
The ships were effectively self-insured against attacks, the official said, with higher crude prices making the voyages financially attractive despite the risks.
“Sometimes you get hits, but it’s always worth it to keep the ‘Hormuz Shuttle’ running,” Balakrishnan quoted the official as saying.
Despite the risks, ships continue to transit the strait, reflecting its commercial importance, particularly for energy shipments to Asian markets, Ampatzidis said.
However, further attacks could deter more operators from making the passage, with the impact likely to differ depending on the type of vessel and each company’s assessment of risk, it added.
The Singapore Shipping Association also played down the prospect of a widespread withdrawal of commercial shipping from the region, suggesting operators would instead adapt to changing business conditions.
“Rather than signaling a widespread retreat from the region, these developments are more likely to lead to adjustments in business models as markets respond to changes in the supply and demand of goods and energy,” said association president TS Teo.
Shipowners will continue to weigh commercial considerations against safety developments and crew safety when making operational decisions, he added.
Greater delivery disruptions
Although some operators remain willing to transit Hormuz, much of the global container shipping industry has already adjusted its networks to avoid the strait.
Jayendu Krishna, director of Drewry Maritime Advisors, said none of the major container shipping lines had resumed services through Hormuz since suspending operations following the outbreak of war in February. Only a few regional operators maintained sporadic services, generally using smaller feeder vessels.
This means the immediate impact of the latest attacks on container shipping may be limited, he said.
However, further escalation in the Gulf of Oman could pose a more serious threat to regional supply chains, particularly if it disrupts alternative ports like Khorfakkan in the UAE and Sohar in Oman, which have become critical gateways for goods entering Gulf countries.
“If the Gulf of Oman becomes a zone of kinetic activity, a significant part of the supply to the Gulf countries would be disrupted, since Khorfakkan and Sohar were a lifeline for them,” Krishna said.
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