Updated October 26, 2026, 6:21 p.m. ET
- Two new polls show a tight U.S. Senate race in Texas between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.
- An Emerson College poll shows Talarico with a slight lead over Paxton, but that’s within the margin of error.
- A Cook Political Report poll shows Talarico leading Paxton by a margin outside the poll’s margin of error.
- Several other October polls also indicate a close race, with Talarico often holding a narrow lead.
Two polls of the U.S. Senate race in Texas show the candidates headed for a close finish, but they disagree on how far they should win.
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll, released Oct. 22, found that 48 percent of likely voters support Democrat James Talarico for U.S. Senate and 46 percent support Republican Ken Paxton — a 2-point lead within the poll’s 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
The Cook Political Report also published a battleground poll, released Oct. 21, on the Texas Senate race showing Talarico leading Republican Paxton 49% to 44%, a 5-point lead outside the poll’s 3.2 percentage point margin of error.
Here’s a closer look at what the two competing polls say and how they compare to other recent October polls, as Texas enters the final week of early voting before Election Day.
Emerson College Poll Shows Way Forward and Warning Signs for James Talarico and Ken Paxton
The Emerson poll, released Oct. 22, shows Talarico’s advantage within his 3.1 percentage point margin of error; it was conducted October 17-19 among 1,000 likely Texas voters – a statistical tie. The poll also found that 1% of respondents supported libertarian Ted Brown.
When the poll asked the 5 percent of undecided voters which candidate they were leaning toward, Talarico’s support rose to 49 percent, Paxton’s support rose to 48 percent, and Brown’s support rose to 3 percent.
“Since August, support for Talarico has slowly increased by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% in the last round, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans. If that holds, Talarico will benefit.”
The Cook Political Report shows what voters think of Paxton and Talarico
The Cook poll, released Oct. 21, shows Talarico’s lead within its margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. The survey was conducted Oct. 9-13 by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group among 934 likely Texas voters.
Cook’s analysis of the poll, written by editor and publisher Amy Walter, found that voters trust Talarico more than Paxton on the top three issues that about nine in 10 Texans consider important or very important to them:
- Fighting corruption in Washington – Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.
- Controlling inflation and the cost of living – Talarico 49%, Paxton 45%.
- Coping with the economy – Talarico 48%, Paxton 45%,
By comparison, 61% of Texas voters view immigration and the border — the issue voters say they trust Paxton, 49% to 45%, more to handle — as important or very important to their vote.
Recent poll numbers for the Texas Senate race
A Fox News poll released Oct. 21 showed Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49 percent each among likely Texas voters in the nationally watched Texas Senate race.
That marks a decline from Talarico’s two-point lead, 51% to 49%, in the previous Fox News poll. Here’s what other October polls show:
Recent polls in the Texas U.S. Senate race
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional Texas newspapers, based in Austin. Do you have a tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
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