The Phillies enter the final day of the MLB regular season on the brink of an unfathomable choke in the playoff race

The Philadelphia Phillies could really do this. We don’t mean that in a good way.

As MLB enters the final day of the regular season on Sunday, only one National League playoff berth is up for grabs. In one corner are the Phillies 87-74. In the other are the 86-75 Arizona Diamondbacks. The Phillies lead the D-backs by just one game, but Arizona has the tiebreaker.

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That leaves a scenario in which the Phillies either get a win against the Tampa Bay Rays or a D-backs loss against the San Diego Padres. It’s a narrow path to victory for Arizona, but it’s a stunning turn of events that the club is alive.

Let’s go back to Tuesday.

With the divisions all but decided, the Phillies were tied with the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres in the wild-card race at 87-70 with five games remaining. The D-backs were dead in the water, trailing the trio by four games. Arizona could have been eliminated from the playoffs as early as Wednesday.

Here’s how every game since then has gone for the D-backs:

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• September 23: Diamondbacks 5, Rockies 3

• September 24: Diamondbacks 12, Rockies 8

• September 25: Diamondbacks 11, Padres 4

• September 26: Padres 10, Diamondbacks 7

And here’s what the Phillies did:

• September 24: Brewers 5, Phillies 1

• September 25: Rays 2, Phillies 0

• September 26: Rays 12, Phillies 1

Long story short, the Phillies had four straight days, exactly one good day after clinching a playoff spot, which the Padres and Cubs both did on Thursday. They were outscored 23-3 over those four days.

To be fair, the Phillies have faced the #1 seeds in the NL (Brewers) and AL (Rays) during this span. They’re tough matchups, but that’s also kind of the point of making the playoffs. The Phillies only needed two games out of 10 to clinch a playoff spot, and only one did it, the Padres’ win on Saturday.

Philadelphia seemed more listless with each game, until its blowout loss to Tampa. This was a game in which the Phillies maneuvered their rotation to start Aaron Nola on two days’ rest, when they would like to keep him for the playoffs. He pitched just one inning, allowing four hits and three runs.

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The club will break even more glass due to an emergency on Sunday, with Zack Wheeler taking the mound and Jesús Luzardo being activated to be available out of the bullpen. This is a full elimination game mode, two days before the start of a hypothetical playoff berth.

Whoever gets the final wild card will face the Atlanta Braves in a best-of-three series starting Tuesday.

Even if Sunday goes the Phillies’ way, they still face a worrying situation in a season that was supposed to be one of their best chances remaining with their current core. They rank fourth in MLB in payroll at $289 million for 2026 and are coming off back-to-back division titles with one of MLB’s oldest teams.

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Bryce Harper is in his age 33 season. Same with Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner. Wheeler is 36 years old. Cristopher Sánchez is 29 years old. Nola is 33 years old. This isn’t a group you can expect to get better over time, just worse, and there isn’t much reason for optimism coming from the minor league ranks, not when Philadelphia’s farm system was ranked just 26th best in baseball by MLB Pipeline last month.

It’s the kind of situation that leads to an uncomfortable offseason every time the team fails to win a World Series. Depending on how Sunday plays out, Philadelphia could experience several more degrees of discomfort this winter.