The September jobs report will be released on Friday. Here’s what to expect

Lingering questions about the state of the U.S. labor market may be answered Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics presents its nonfarm payroll tally for September.

Wall Street expects job creation of 84,000 to end the summer, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%, according to the Dow Jones consensus.

While the employment numbers represent a decline from the pre-2025 trend, the unemployment rate, which Federal Reserve officials are watching more closely, is hovering around a level indicating full employment.

The September release follows a surprisingly strong gain of 162,000 in August, which also saw upward revisions from previous months.

Fed officials will likely look at these numbers to confirm the strength of the labor market while simultaneously turning their attention to the more worrisome inflation picture.

“In the labor market, a wide range of data indicates that conditions have stabilized,” Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said Thursday. “Even though job creation has been somewhat volatile, payroll gains have spread across many sectors in recent months, which is encouraging. Layoffs have remained low and job openings have increased slightly in net terms.”

Although the employment situation is strong, the Fed’s comments this week have changed market expectations for a rate hike toward the end of October.

New York Fed President John Williams said earlier in the week that “there was no urgency” as policymakers considered whether to follow up September’s quarter-percentage-point rate hike with another increase.

“On the employment side (of the Fed’s dual goals of full employment and price stability), the data shows that the labor market continues to be strong – and has even strengthened slightly,” Williams said.

Markets then sharply reduced the odds of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting and are looking at a much more likely decision in December.

At the heart of the argument that the Fed should focus on inflation but not rush into another hike is the stable, if unspectacular, employment situation.

Payroll growth has averaged 80,000 per month in 2026, but has been uneven, from a loss of 156,000 jobs in February to growth of 214,000 the following month, with hits and misses in between.

Wage growth has also moderated, with the average hourly wage expected to show a 3.1% year-on-year increase in September, up from around 4% at the start of the year. Fed officials have emphasized that wages are not a significant source of inflation, with the lack of evidence of a wage-price spiral being an important distinction when calibrating policy.

However, concerns remain about the labor market situation.

Glassdoor’s most recent survey shows employee confidence fell to a record low in September, the third time this year. Daniel Zhao, the yard’s chief economist, said the concerns stem from “anxiety over job security, economic uncertainty and rising inflation.”

Workers also speak of fear of artificial intelligence.

However, layoffs remain low, with the latest data showing initial unemployment insurance claims fell slightly to 197,000 last week. Staffing agency Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that layoffs in September were down 18% from August and 20% from the same period last year.

“Job postings are going down, hiring is kind of going down, and you find anecdotally anyway, as well as in the data, that it’s very difficult for people to find new jobs,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade. “You have this unemployment rate that’s not moving much, and it’s really important to see that historically it’s quite low. So, I think you’re seeing a job market that is — ‘stable’ is a really good word for it.”