This is a new record revealed by Météo-France on Wednesday August 19. Three heat waves for a total of more than 50 days have been recorded in France since the start of 2026. The month of July was the hottest ever recorded in the country since measurements began in 1900, with an average temperature of 24.9°C, or 3.8°C above normal.
By 2050, heat waves like those the French experienced in June and July “will be more frequent and more intense, with five times more days of heat waves”, alerts Françoise Vimeux, climatologist and research director at the Research Institute for Development (IRD).
“If we take for example the summer of 2025, one of the hottest summers we have known to date, it will be a completely normal summer by 2050,” estimates the climatologist.
Longer heat waves
“We can imagine that in 10, 20, 30 years, we will only have one heat wave during the summer: it will start in mid-June and end in mid-September,” underlines Françoise Vimeux.
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In a France at +2.7°C, the nights would also be warmer. Météo-France predicts an average of twelve tropical nights per year, when the temperature does not drop below 20°C, compared to seven currently. On the Mediterranean coast, this number could reach 100 nights per year.
Up to 50°C during heat peaks?
Before the 1980s, it was very rare to exceed 40°C in France. Since 2015, these temperatures have been reached almost every year, sometimes several times.
In a France at +2.7°C, 37°C would become the average temperature of the hottest day of the year nationally. In some years, temperatures close to 48°C could be reached locally.
Today’s maximum temperatures will be significantly exceeded in the future, according to the specialist. “40°C will become common temperatures in our summers to come. During heat peaks, we will probably be able, by 2050, in certain regions, to reach the threshold of 50°C,” estimates Françoise Vimeux.
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Warming would affect the entire territory, even if its intensity would vary depending on the region. “We must abandon the imagination that we will have regions spared from heat waves in the future. The entire French territory will be subject to heat waves. adds the specialist.
The climatologist cites Brittany and Cotentin in particular, where heat records have been recorded in recent years. “There are no longer any refuge areas if we want to avoid any extreme heat during the summer period, except perhaps in the high mountains.”
Could the July and August holidays change?
In this context, the question of the vacation schedule could arise. In summer, higher temperatures and longer heat episodes could change the attractiveness of certain destinations, such as the south-east of France. Regions like Île-de-France would not be spared either.
“If we reach a warming of more than 4°C compared to the pre-industrial era in mainland France in 2100, the fire risk in the Paris region will be similar to what we know in the Mediterranean hinterland,” explains Françoise Vimeux.
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These developments could lead some vacationers to change their departure times or seek destinations where temperatures are more moderate.
For climate sociologist Stéphane Labranche, this change could notably favor certain northern destinations. “I wonder if the Nordic countries will not become the new destination of choice,” he asks. Mountain areas could also seek to benefit from this change in demand. “Mountain regions are starting to adapt their tourism offering and modify their economic model,” notes the sociologist.
Should we rethink the school calendar?
Stéphane Labranche raises another problem that the country could face: should the school calendar be modified to adapt to climate change? But this would not only answer a climate question.
The organization of establishments, families and many economic sectors would also need to be reviewed. “If we don’t take our vacations during the summer, when are we going to take them? Because if we take them in winter, we send the children to school in the summer? We’re going to have to rebuild, renovate and even air-condition the schools, because above 25-26°C, a child’s cognitive abilities decrease. So, should the vacations be in September? Is it enough to postpone a few weeks or to postpone of a month? It’s an entire social system that needs to change,” underlines Stéphane Labranche.
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Occasional adaptations already exist in certain countries facing heat episodes. In Spain, certain regions have notably adapted school hours during periods of high heat. This is the case for example in Madrid. The city now plans to move classes to the cooler hours, in the morning, in the event of a heatwave. In Andalusia, in the south of the country, students can be released earlier when the mercury rises.
In France, communities have also experimented with flexible working hours. In Montélimar, in Drôme, school timetables were brought forward to June 2024 during an episode of high heat. To date, no national reform of the school holiday calendar linked to climate change is planned in France.
But as heat episodes become more frequent and longer, the question of adapting summer holidays could take an increasing place in the debate on adaptation to climate change.
By 2050, summer vacations will not disappear. But the climatic conditions in which the French will spend them could be significantly different from those we know today.
