Tropical Storm Isaias could form in the Gulf later this week and could bring more torrential rain and wind to parts of the Gulf Coast this weekend.
Where is it currently and when might it develop?
An area of low pressure has formed off the eastern coast of Mexico in the southwest Gulf.
Over the next few days, this will play out in an environment that appears at least somewhat favorable for development, which could occur as early as Wednesday or Thursday.
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The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled the first hurricane chaser mission into this system for Wednesday afternoon.
If it becomes a tropical storm (winds of at least 39 mph), it would be called Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs), which would be the ninth storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
(MORE: Hurricane Season Map Tracker)
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Where will the system go?
It is too early to determine exactly where this system will follow.
As usual this early, there are various model forecast paths extending from the upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle.
Chances of rain will increase by Friday in this region.
Either way, this could mean additional rain for the already soggy Southeast and Gulf Coast, generally along and east of this system’s track.
(MORE: Hurricane Preparedness: What You Need to Know During Hurricane Season)
What obstacles could this system encounter?
With the jet stream sagging far to the south, this system may have to contend with wind shear along the northern Gulf.
You can see the wind shear map below; darker purple and white colors indicate strong shear. Wind shear disrupts, weakens, and sometimes completely prevents the development of tropical systems and hurricanes.
However, if the jet stream moves a little further north, there could be a window of opportunity for strengthening. This is something we will have to monitor closely in the coming days.
What you should do
If you’re near the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, monitor the latest forecasts for this system and have your hurricane plans ready, just in case.
Despite one of the least active hurricane seasons in years, that doesn’t mean a severe storm can’t occur this late in the season.
And there’s no need for a hurricane to trigger major flooding, as we saw earlier this season with flooding from Tropical Storm Arthur in the South.
(MORE: Stay Prepared During This Hurricane Season)
Storms can still form during strong El Niño years
Even though this hurricane season has proven to be one of the quietest on record, that doesn’t mean we can’t have an impactful tropical system or hurricane.
There have been seasons in the past that managed to produce strong storms despite a strong El Niño.
The image below shows several hurricanes that formed during the super El Niño seasons from 1972 to 2015.
Some hurricanes have occurred during the Atlantic super El Niño hurricane seasons (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015). Portions of hurricane tracks and intensity Category 3 and above are color coded. Note: We omitted 1991 because El Niño only reached the super criterion during the three-month period centered on December 1991. Other storms that occurred during these years are represented by white traces.
(NHC/NOAA)
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