Why it’s important: Trump appears to be attempting to single-handedly impose a partial ceasefire. But so far, Russia has not agreed to any sort of ceasefire – and Ukraine wants one that bans attacks on power plants.
Reality check: The “refinery for refinery” proposal, as the official dubbed it, is unbalanced. A Ukrainian official told Axios that the country has a single oil refinery that the Russians have attacked several times and is not fully functional. Russia, on the other hand, has an extensive network of refineries.
- “We import diesel and gas. What we need is for the Russians to stop attacking our power grid,” the Ukrainian official said.
- “The Russians are thinking about it,” the White House official said. “We will know soon if they are ready.”
Concrete example: Hours after Trump’s announcement, Russia carried out strikes on power plants in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian media.
What he said: Trump’s Truth Social message sounded at first like a major breakthrough. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides agree. Don’t break it!” he wrote.
- It seems much more tenuous than that. Zelensky said the announced ceasefire “was news to me.”
State of affairs: After reaching a deal with Russia on Friday to lift diesel sanctions, Trump remains focused on stopping Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. He believes that strikes are driving up gas prices in the United States.
- White House officials warn that Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries hurt Zelensky’s relationship with Trump more than Russia.
- “Trump is really crazy. He feels that Zelensky is taking the United States for granted,” the White House official said.
Zoom: Amid the crisis with Ukraine, presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner suspended their planned trip to Moscow, at least until they know whether Ukraine and the Europeans are ready to agree on a new, unified proposal for Putin.
- A Ukrainian official told Axios on Friday that during a meeting with U.S. negotiators in Miami on Friday, Witkoff and Kushner threatened that Trump might stop sharing U.S. intelligence if he continued to ignore his requests.
- A U.S. official denied this, saying Witkoff and Kushner told the Ukrainians that the United States was a strong partner, providing munitions and intelligence. Ukraine should therefore not take actions that could harm American consumers, the two men said.
- On Sunday, the Financial Times reported that the United States had told European countries that it could stop selling weapons to Ukraine through NATO if Ukraine continues to hit Russian refineries.
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