WASHINGTON (AP) – President Donald Trump and Iranian leaders seem to agree on one thing regarding their seven month old war: they each insist that the American electoral calendar does not motivate them to put an end to it.
Persistent inflation And high gas prices fueled by the conflict caused the United States to spread disapproval of war – a feeling that casts a long shadow over the elections of November 3 this will determine whether Trump’s party maintains control of Congress. And American economic sanctions and the naval blockade of Iranian oil provoke deep shocks for Tehran economy.
Yet Iranian officials insist there will be no deal until the United States lifts the blockade and eases sanctions. Meanwhile, Trump hesitates. He has sent more military resources in the region and has threatened to resume strikes – although he also states that the United States “will not attack Iran at any time before” to November 3.
Speaking to other world leaders last month at the United Nations General Assembly, Trump insisted he “won’t give credence to the election when it comes to Iran.”
Now, more than a week later a 32-day blitz For Republican candidates, Trump is doubling down on that message, telling voters he’s winning the war while darkly warning he’s ready to “end it” if Iran doesn’t surrender.
“I’ll tell you what: Iran will be very quick one way or the other,” Trump said Friday. while campaigning in New York. “Either they give us everything, or they no longer exist.”
Iran showed resilience in the face of Trump’s threats
Trump’s election bravado comes after his stated war aims in Iran were has changed significantly during the conflict.
He moved from maximalist demands for unconditional surrender of the theocratic government to a focus on economic pressure, reining in Tehran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranian economy is certainly in ruins. Its navy and air force were devastated and key political and military leaders were killed in the first weeks of the conflict.
Still, Iran has shown some resilience in the face of Trump’s repeated attempts to order major new strikes – only to back down at the last moment.
After months of bitter war, the U.S. election campaign does not fundamentally change Iran’s approach to the American leader they view as an unreliable narrator, said Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official.
Iranian leaders, Karimi added, fear that “the United States, especially under the Trump era, will not comply with any agreement, even if it signs it itself.”
Some Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump
Trump’s message is not an easy one for Republican candidates to embrace as they make their case to voters frustrated by rising gas prices and food prices.
Most Americans, 69%, say the war is not worth fightingaccording to a survey published last week by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. This is a slight increase from 64% in July. Only 28% approve of Trump’s handling of Iran.
Some Republicans in competitive races have sought to distance themselves from Trump on the war.
In Michigan, Republican candidate for Senate Mike Rogers declared that “the war with Iran must end – and end quickly.” Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is in a competitive Senate race in Iowa, said Iowans should not have to “foot the bill” for the war. Seven House Republicans voted in favor of a war powers resolution aimed at restricting Trump’s chosen war.
Yet trying to distance himself from Trump on Iran is nearly impossible for Republicans so close to Election Day, says Christopher Borick, director of the Opinion Observatory at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.
“This represents a huge burden for Republicans,” Borick said. “Changing the narrative to separate from Trump is going to be a Herculean task.”
Iran expects Trump to resume strikes
Negotiations appeared to stall after Trump late last month. publicly rejectedThe Iranian proposal quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States meets certain conditions.
The Iranians, however, claim that they have since received an American counter-proposal and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday he expected Tehran to offer a formal response within days. Trump on Thursday called the indirect negotiations “productive.”
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian said Tehran wanted to return to the framework of the short-lived June deal. This agreement contained the promise of financial aid for Iran, which never materialized.
But the Iranian president also expressed skepticism. “We are trying to move the process forward. We are having conversations; every time we had talks with them, they attacked us again,” Pezeshkian said Thursday during his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan.
As part of any deal, Iranian officials say the United States must lift its blockade before Iran agrees to cease its attacks on international oil tankers using the Strait of Hormuz.
“We are telling America that it must act first. Enough talking, enough negotiating,” Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards and secretary of Iran’s top security body, recently told Iranian state television, boasting that Iran had the upper hand in the conflict.
Some Iranian officials appear to believe that a return to full-scale war may be inevitable.
Mahdi Mohammadi, Tehran-based analyst and advisor to the Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Qalibafsaid on Telegram that although indirect negotiations with the United States have been “serious”, he predicted that “the war would start again” soon.
Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis adds complications
At his rallies, Trump has highlighted a recent surge in Gulf oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, while arguing that Iranian leaders will soon have to capitulate.
Indeed, Iran has lost its virtual stranglehold on oil flows through the waterway as U.S. Central Command guides tankers through the strait at night with their tracking systems turned off.
But in recent days, Iran has increased attacks on oil tankers crossing the strait. And overall, maritime traffic remains well below pre-war levels.
Tanker operators willing to risk competing under the protection of Central Command are in some cases charging rates of a million dollars a day or more, say shipping analysts.
The situation has become even more complicated as Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government launched a military campaign intended to drive Iran-backed Houthi rebels of the Strait of Bab el-Mandebanother vital Middle East trade route for oil and other goods.
The Houthis, in turn, are targeting Saudi airports and key infrastructure in the kingdom with drone and missile strikes.
Iranian officials see little change, even as Democrats take control of Congress
Trump insists the US naval blockade aimed at preventing Iranian oil from reaching the market has pushed Tehran to the brink.
Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad recently resigned, Iranian state television announced this week. And the Iranian currency, the rial, continues to crater.
Iranian leaders appear confident they can still absorb military pressure and impose additional costs on the United States and the global economy, said Karimi, the former Iranian government official.
Hamzeh Safavi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, said Iranian officials place little importance on the midterm elections when calculating their next move.
“Iran knows that, whether Democrats or Republicans, there is a shared vision on the fundamental confrontation with Iran,” Safavi said. “They may simply disagree on how to confront Iran. For this reason, the results will not really create a fundamental change in relations with Iran.”
___
AP writer Madhani reported from Jerusalem.
Gn world
