By June 2026, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean around the equator were already abnormally high, a sign of a developing El Niño phenomenon. Since then, they have only increased.
NOAA satellites
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NOAA satellites
According to federal forecasters, this year the planet I could see the loudest El Niño event recorded. It is already called “Super El Niño” and even “Godzilla El Niño”. El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon that has considerable consequences across the planet, potentially affecting hundreds of millions of people.
Where these impacts occur can vary significantly from one El Niño to the next. Here are the basics of what this historic event could bring.
What is El Niño?
El Niño occurs every two years. It develops when a large amount of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean warming around the equator. This water releases massive heat, redistributing heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. This changes weather conditions around the world.
The flip side of El Niño is a La Niña, characterized by relatively cool waters in the tropical Pacific around the equator. These events are responsible for some of the greatest weather variability experienced on the planet.
El Niño is like dropping a stone in a pond, says Daniel Vimont, professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Even if you’re not where the rock hit, you can still feel the effects of those waves,” he says. “El Niño is the same thing, except it’s a huge rock in our entire Earth system, and we feel the response.”
How strong is he?
Sure, “Godzilla El Niño” is catchy, but technically, NOAA forecasters say this year’s El Niño will fall into the “very strong” category. It is measured by the temperature of the ocean in a particular region off the coast of South America. The warmer the water, the stronger El Niño. When this water is more than 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average, it is called a “very strong” El Niño.
The last strong events were in 2015-16, 1997-8 and 1982-83. El Niño events typically peak in November and December, but this El Niño is already the strongest ever measured for this time of year. NOAA forecasters expect this to last until early 2027.
What will be the impacts on a global scale?
All this added heat in the atmosphere is causing temperatures to rise globally. El Niño years tend to be the warmest on record. Forecasters say this year could be poised to take the top spot, but it’s very likely that temperature records will fall in 2027. The planet is already warmer due to climate change, as emissions from burning fossil fuels trap more heat in the atmosphere.
El Niño also changes precipitation patterns globally, increasing the risk of destructive flooding. in some parts of the world. Other regions are becoming drier, exacerbating droughts. Both of these impacts can be catastrophic for agriculture worldwide. The United Nations World Food Program estimates that El Niño could push at least 49 million additional people in acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
What will be the impacts in the United States?
During El Niño years, the southern United States tends to experience more intense precipitation because the jet stream moves south. This increases the risk of flooding along rivers and in towns. Yet in the southwest, more rain could ease drought and recharge underground aquifers.
“El Niño tends to intensify these storms, which leads to heavier rains,” says Martin Hoerling, a meteorologist and lecturer at the University of Colorado at Boulder. “So if you had a water supply deficit, a big El Niño, especially like the one we’re experiencing, can really put you into recovery mode that otherwise might have taken you years.”
The northern half of the country is becoming hotter and drier, which could exacerbate the current drought in the Intermountain West. Some states experience mixed effects during El Niño, such as California. The state experienced historic flooding during the 1997-98 El Niño event, but was drier than average during the 2015-16 El Niño event. Climate experts say the current El Niño is so strong that it is even more violent. California is likely to experience extreme rain.
El Niños can also lead to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean because storms have a harder time forming. In the Pacific Ocean, hurricanes may become more frequent, fueled by warmer ocean waters. Already this year, hurricanes intensified rapidly in the Pacific, and Hawaii was touched by several hurricanes which caused destructive rain and wind.
Can we blame all this on El Niño?
Some weather changes are common during El Niños, but there is no guarantee that extreme weather events this winter will match forecasts for each region.
“El Niño is like rolling the dice,” Vimont says. “Even if we roll the dice in anticipation of a certain type of response to El Niño, we still know that in any given year there are still natural fluctuations that can mask that or make the response slightly different than we might expect.”
In addition to this natural variability, weather events are also affected by climate change. The most intense storms already produce more precipitation in most of the United States because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. Heat waves and droughts are also becoming more intense due to rising temperatures. Climate experts say El Niño and the impacts of climate change will be felt this winter, but even though El Niño will fade, the effects of climate change will continue.
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