CNN data guru Harry Enten made a stunning prediction involving President Donald Trump’s Democratic foe.
James Talarico, 37, now leads Republican Attorney General – and Trump ally – Ken Paxton, 63, in the bitter Texas Senate battle. According to a New York Times/University of Siena poll released Saturday, Talarico got 51 percent, ahead of Paxton with 45 percent.
What’s alarming for Trump, 80, is that his disapproval rating in Texas stands at 57 percent, while his terrible personal popularity continues to hurt his party’s electoral chances.
On Sunday, Enten released the numbers for Talarico and a potential Democratic Senate victory in Texas. The state has long been considered a stronghold of the Republican Party, and a surprise victory would go a long way toward Democrats taking control of the upper house in the Nov. 3 election.
Based on his overall data, Enten said if Talarico beats Paxton, it would give Democrats a 78% chance of winning the Senate.
“Basically, they would be very, very close to doing it,” Enten said, pointing out that Democrats need to flip four seats to determine control of the Senate, and that Texas is the fourth most likely to do so.
Enten’s cumulative poll numbers put Talarico at a 70 percent chance of victory, with Paxton at just 30 percent.
“And I will note that as Talarico’s chances go up, and they go up, so do the Democrats’ chances of taking control of the Senate, like a rocket.”
Using CNN’s analysis, Enten calculated that Republicans’ biggest advantage is in spending outside their campaign, with a whopping $167 million in Texas compared to just $6.8 million for Democrats.
However, in terms of actual ad spend, Talarico is “absolutely overwhelming” at $31 million, compared to just $352,000 for Paxton.
“James Talarico has a $31 million upside,” Enten pointed out.
Talarico’s growing chances and troubling New York Times polls follow Paxton’s secret recording criticizing President Trump and his failure at the midterm election convention in Dallas.
“Do you feel like he’s a little boring?” A person could be heard asking Paxton about Trump in audio obtained by The New York Times.
“So, to be honest with you, the numbers – when we had this convention – went down. Everyone’s numbers went down,” Paxton responded. “Right now, yeah, not good.”
Paxton’s soon-to-be ex-wife, Angela Paxton, herself a Texas state senator, released an ad Saturday calling on voters to support Republicans.
“Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: In a general election, it’s not so much about the individual players on the team. It’s about getting the whole team across the finish line,” she said, avoiding mentioning her ex-husband’s name.
“Either we hold all the Republican seats or we hand the future of Texas to the other team,” she said.
The ad was funded by the Texas PAC, “a political action committee affiliated with the main super PAC for Senate Republican leaders,” the Times reported.
Angela Paxton filed for divorce from her husband of nearly 40 years “on biblical grounds” in July 2025. They share four children and seven grandchildren.
Paxton was filmed visiting London in July this year, on a romantic getaway with his alleged mistress, Christian influencer Tracy Duhon, 58.
Gn usa
