Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a new military expansion, adding 15,500 troops, as Moscow’s advance on the battlefield in Ukraine stalled after more than four and a half years of fighting.
Putin signed the decree on Sunday, marking the fourth time this year that the president has increased the authorized size of the Russian military. In total, these orders added 47,860 troops since March.
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This comes as both sides increasingly rely on drones and long-range strikes against each other.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has repeatedly accused Moscow of preparing another mobilization – something Putin called Ukrainian “disinformation.”
So why did Putin issue this decree, and where is the conflict going?
What does the decree say?
“The authorized strength of the Russian armed forces must be set at 2,441,630 units, including 1,550,500 military personnel,” specifies the decree.
He did not explain why the additional troops were needed or how they would be recruited. Putin had already issued orders to strengthen the army in March, June and July.
Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, called the expansion technical.
“This is mainly a technical decision rather than a strategic change. It is technical in the sense that 15,000 additional people will not change the dynamics of the conflict,” he told Al Jazeera.
“As for a diplomatic solution, we are still far from it.”
Why did Putin decide to increase the size of the army?
The Kremlin has not publicly given a reason, but the order comes as Russia faces mounting human and material losses as well as limited territorial gains.
Ukraine expert Olena Halushka says Russia’s war effort is not going as planned.
“Last year, at the summit in Anchorage (in the US state of Alaska), Putin continued to demand that Ukraine withdraw from the rest of the Donetsk region that Russia had failed to conquer, probably saying that Ukraine would soon lose these lands anyway. Yet a year later, the situation on the battlefield today shows absolutely the opposite,” Action Center board member Halushka told Al Jazeera. anti-corruption of kyiv.
“Putin’s latest decree is likely not the last and should be seen in the context of Russia’s continued efforts to increase the manpower available for a protracted war,” she added.
Russia’s advances have slowed sharply this year, with the widespread use of drones making large concentrations and rapid troop movements increasingly dangerous.
The Ukrainian military said earlier this month that Russian casualties in 2026 had exceeded 300,000 and estimated that Moscow had suffered more than 20,000 casualties in the first half of September alone. Al Jazeera was unable to independently verify these figures.
The latest decrees also come as Ukraine repeatedly claims Moscow is looking outside Russia to bolster its forces and preparing another mobilization, a claim Russia denies.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that more than 8,000 North Korean troops are currently in Russia and preparations are being made to deploy an additional 10,000. North Korea has already sent between 14,000 and 15,000 troops to support Russia since 2024, according to Ukrainian and South Korean estimates.
Putin last ordered a mobilization of reservists in September 2022 after Russia suffered a series of setbacks on the battlefield.
However, Russian expert Alexei D Muraviev said this latest increase was unlikely to be linked to Ukraine.
“Getting things in place would require some time in terms of planning, in terms of recruitment, in terms of training new units, and it will not meet Russia’s immediate operational needs in the theater of war,” Muraviev, professor and senior fellow in defense and strategic studies at Edith Cowan University, told Al Jazeera.
According to him, Putin’s decision to increase the army has more to do with “long-term strategic considerations” such as tensions between Moscow and NATO and the “increased possibility of a major open conflict between Russia and NATO in the near future.”
“It also motivates the continued reorganization of the Russian army, the expansion of its standing force and the formation of new units, including military divisions and maritime divisions.
“We must also keep in mind that the Russians are concerned about Japan’s strengthening military power, as well as American military power in the Pacific, and subsequently the need to address these security concerns.”
What’s the latest news on the war?
Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange major air attacks, even as the ground war advances slowly.
At least 10 people were killed and more than 80 injured in Russian attacks across the country on Monday.
Russian drones struck the National Academy of Sciences in central kyiv, while attacks were also reported in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and other parts of Ukraine.
Russian forces have also stepped up attacks on the Ukrainian capital, kyiv, forcing a leading university – Taras Shevchenko National University – to move to distance learning.
Shevchenko University said it would “shift to a remote working format” until at least October 16, “due to the deteriorating security situation in Kyiv.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine, on the eastern front, is said to have advanced into northern Donetsk. According to the Reuters news agency, a senior Ukrainian commander said kyiv’s forces had reconquered 51 square kilometers (19.7 square miles) in a recent operation, bringing the total recovered in that operation to 176 square kilometers (68 square miles).
Donetsk remains one of the central battlegrounds – and a major sticking point in negotiations – with Ukraine still controlling around 20% of the region.
Russia annexed four occupied Ukrainian regions, including Donetsk and Luhansk, in 2022. The move was not recognized by the international community, including the UN.
What is the latest diplomatic news?
Even though diplomatic efforts have resumed, no progress has been made.
Russia wants Ukraine to cede the eastern region it has annexed and for kyiv to renounce its ambitions within NATO. But Ukraine has ruled out any territorial concessions and urged its European allies to provide a security guarantee in the event of a deal.
Earlier this month, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Moscow and kyiv to meet with Putin and Zelensky as Washington sought to restart negotiations. Zelensky later said the envoys had presented “decent ideas,” although fundamental disagreements remained, including over territory.
According to Zelensky, Washington is now seeking trilateral talks at the technical level involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States, with the United Arab Emirates proposed as a possible venue.
Putin said last week that proposals to resume negotiations remained “on the table”, while saying his country still had to assess what was in its best interests.
Ukraine expert Halushka said a diplomatic solution was not possible as long as Moscow concluded that “continuing the war would cost it less than ending it.”
“Russia’s actions suggest that the Kremlin still believes it can improve its position through military force, terrorism against Ukrainian civilians and breaking Western support for Ukraine,” she noted.
“At the same time, Russia is stepping up its hybrid activities in Europe, showing that the security challenge it poses extends well beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. »
Where is the conflict going?
According to academic Muraviev, the war in Ukraine has entered “a new phase of escalation” as Moscow intensifies its air campaign and achieves “domination of the air” through drone and missile attacks.
He believes this escalation is a response to “the so-called 40-day special operation announced by Zelensky last June”, aimed at undermining Russia’s war effort and the population’s morale ahead of parliamentary elections.
In turn, Muraviev claims, the Kremlin decided to “demonstrate its ability to bring Ukraine to its knees,” by systematically destroying key sectors of the Ukrainian economy, from the steel industry to agricultural exports, and imposing a de facto naval blockade without using its Black Sea Fleet.
Muraviev says Russia is now attacking data and communications centers, refineries, bridges and locomotives to make the war “simply unaffordable for its Western allies.”
A proposed energy truce between the two sides presented by US President Donald Trump has failed to end the tit-for-tat attacks.
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