With Shift in Iranian Rhetoric Following US Election, Trump Leaves Middle East Unclear on Path Forward

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has had plenty to say about his thinking about the path forward in the Iran war since Republicans were defeated in last week’s midterm elections.

In his interactions with journalists, broadcast interviews and social media posts since Election Day, he has somehow managed to forgo carrying out additional strikes while giving up the prospect of additional negotiations with the Islamic Republic’s negotiators to end the eight-month-old conflict.

The president acknowledged in the aftermath of the midterm elections that the war and the global economic tumult it caused were partly to blame for Republicans’ electoral losses, while saying it was the right thing to do.

Then, earlier this week, he met with Qatar’s prime minister at the White House and later told reporters that he thought it was very unlikely that he would need to order major new strikes against Iran, declaring that the war “militarily is effectively over.”

But on Thursday, he again raised the question of whether he should rush to find an endgame. He said the United States no longer needed a deal with Tehran and abruptly ordered Vice President JD Vance — who served as his chief negotiator in previous peace talks with Iran — to turn his attention to the administration’s domestic anti-fraud campaign targeting Democratic-controlled cities and states.

Meanwhile, Trump warned Iran that the U.S. military was “locked and loaded” and monitoring Pickaxe Mountain, a facility linked to Iran’s nuclear program, for signs of activity.

“If something doesn’t work, I won’t hesitate” to act, Trump told conservative TV channel Hugh Hewitt on Thursday.

War in Iran will cast a shadow over Trump’s Asia trip

Trump’s shifts in tone have only added to uncertainty about the outcome of a war in which America’s allies were not consulted before its outbreak but nonetheless struggled to manage its economic ramifications.

“President Trump is now acting like an arsonist who has inflamed our foreign policy,” Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey said Friday in an interview on the sidelines of Democrats’ post-election rally in Denver. “And now he just wants to go away.”

The president’s ambiguous position on the war is expected to be highlighted during a visit next week to the Philippines and meetings of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation at China’s technology center in Shenzhen.

WATCH: After Midterm Elections, World Leaders Await Trump’s Next Iran Move

In Shenzhen, Trump will hold an unprecedented three-way summit with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Trump is expected to discuss Iran and the three powers’ nuclear stockpiles with Xi and Putin.

The White House declined to comment directly on questions about Trump’s post-election rhetoric on Iran. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that Trump’s approach was leading to the collapse of Iran’s economy.

“The economic pain we are inflicting on this regime is so great that military action is not necessary because we have weakened it so much,” Rubio said in a speech Friday evening to the Federalist Society.

Middle East diplomats try to make sense of Trump’s position

Chief mediator Qatar continues to attempt to negotiate an interim deal that would restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for moving oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf to global markets, while leaving options open for further talks between the United States and Iran.

But those efforts are now clouded by uncertainty following Trump’s changing — and sometimes contradictory — comments, according to two Middle East diplomats familiar with the process.

The diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, said the situation appeared to be on track earlier this week after the meeting between the Qatari prime minister and Trump.

But Trump’s social media post Thursday, saying the U.S. doesn’t need a deal with Iran and ordering Vance to “focus all his attention” on his anti-fraud campaign, created a sense of vagueness.

One of the diplomats said the message raised questions about why Trump appeared to sideline Vance, who was skeptical about launching the war but ultimately supported Trump.

READ MORE: Iranian leaders say midterm results show US voters rejected Trump’s war

Trump’s message comes as Vance is considering possible reengagement with senior Iranian negotiators, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The president released his message calling on Vance to walk away from negotiations with Iran the morning after The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance was considering resuming negotiations. Trump — who was aware of Vance’s deliberations — believed the Iranians were not acting in good faith, the person added.

Trump is also increasingly confident in his ability to credibly declare that he has achieved his military objectives in the war.

But crossing the Strait of Hormuz remains perilous. United Nations reports recorded October as the highest number of incidents against commercial vessels in disputed waters since February.

Still, Trump believes that with oil shipments through the strait reaching near pre-war levels, he could potentially leave it to Gulf countries to negotiate a deal with the Iranians on governance of the critical waterway, the person said.

The other regional diplomat described peace efforts as being in a waiting phase as people wait for clarification from the White House on Trump’s intentions.

This diplomat added that it was not entirely clear to the mediators or the Iranians whether Trump’s comments meant he was abandoning a negotiated deal or whether it was simply posturing after the midterm congressional elections that cost the Republican Party control of Congress.

Rubio insists US has not abandoned mediation efforts

Iran remains reluctant to engage in negotiations over its nuclear program until the United States agrees to several basic conditions that Iran demanded for any ceasefire agreement.

Differences with Iran over its nuclear activities remain the thorniest issue and one that Trump insists will be resolved as part of any deal to end the war.

Tehran’s rhetoric has hardly calmed down. Iran’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Gholamhossein Darzi, told the United Nations Security Council on Friday that Iran “has never closed the door on diplomacy.” But he warned that if the United States or Israel resumed bombing, his country would offer “an immediate and decisive response.”

Rubio stressed earlier this week that the United States was not opposed to mediators continuing their efforts.

READ MORE: Vance blames Iran war for GOP midterm losses

“If there is a deal to be made, the president will be the first to be in favor of it,” Rubio said. “But it won’t be a stupid deal. It won’t be a bad deal.”

Michael Singh, managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he expects the status quo to persist for some time, with the United States and Iran locked in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and the United States continuing its months-long naval blockade that is curbing the flow of Iranian crude to the global market.

Singh said the U.S. strategy of economically crushing Iran is a far more attractive option for Trump than military escalation or concessions to Tehran.

He also suggested that Trump could always reverse his position on Vance’s engagement with the Iranians if the president finds that the Iranians are willing to negotiate seriously.

“It’s probably also the most reasonable path to be patient, keep the pressure on and allow the mediators to continue to do their job,” said Singh, who worked on Middle East issues in former President George W. Bush’s White House. “And when the time is right, but not before, is when you want to involve high-ranking officials like the vice president and so on.”

Associated Press writers Nicholas Riccardi in Denver and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed reporting.