A tropical depression is likely to form in the Gulf this week, but the storm’s future remains uncertain
Invest 92L is expected to strengthen at least in Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf this week. FOX Hurricane Weather Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down all the possible scenarios and identifies which parts of the Gulf Coast could see the greatest impacts from this system.
TAKEAWAYS
- Invest 92L is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression in the southern Gulf later this week.
- Wednesday will be a crucial day to determine the evolution of the system.
- Even if the system does not become tropical, the Gulf Coast could see another round of heavy rain and possible flash flooding this weekend.
A tropical depression is likely to form in the southern Gulf this week, amid the calmest start to the Atlantic hurricane season since 1966, the start of the satellite era, with no hurricanes having formed this year.
THE LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
(FOX Weather)
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated an impending tropical disturbance as Invest 92L and gives the system a high chance of becoming at least a tropical depression over the next two days. From here, it remains an open question how strong this storm will be and where exactly it will head.
WHAT IS AN INVESTMENT DURING HURRICANE SEASON?
The term “invest” is used every hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern and Central Pacific basins, accompanied respectively by a number from 90 to 99 and the suffix “L”, “E” or “C”.
(FOX Weather)
Currently, a massive cold front is moving across Central Florida and extending across the Gulf, bringing days of heavy rain to the Sunshine State during the work week.
A storm could develop at the end of this front Thursday or Friday, potentially developing a more defined center that forecasters could track.
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However, Wednesday will be a crucial day in determining the future of this system as it begins to interact with more hostile winds driven by El Niño as well as dry air, which have helped suppress the hurricane season across the entire Atlantic.
(FOX Weather)
“A better defined system in the southern Gulf will be able to defend against hostile conditions,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
“Some models are now hinting at the possibility of our first hurricane of the season, but there is still much to refine as uncertainty remains extremely high.”
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The FOX Forecast Center said the system may also struggle to develop or stay closer to the Mexican coast.
Regardless of tropical development, forecasts call for another round of heavy rains heading toward parts of the Florida and Louisiana coasts by the weekend.
HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk for parts of the Southeast on Friday and Saturday.
(FOX Weather)
Meanwhile, Gulf water temperatures are currently at their warmest levels on record since 1982. The warm waters are conducive to tropical development.
September ended without a hurricane for the first time in 32 years, despite being the climatological peak of the season.
SEPTEMBER ENDS WITHOUT A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 32 YEARS AMID THE IMMINENT SUPER EL NIÑO
A destroyed neighborhood following Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Florida.
(RICARDO ARDUENGO/AFP / Getty Images)
If the entire 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ended without a hurricane, it would mark the first hurricane-free Atlantic season in the modern era.
Check back for updates on this developing story.
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