Russia’s warning that it could resort to nuclear weapons if NATO tries to isolate Kaliningrad raises new concerns that the heavily militarized Russian enclave could become a flashpoint between Moscow and the alliance, as experts warn the territory is already being used to pressure Europe through hybrid warfare.
Moscow warned NATO in a diplomatic document that it was ready to use “the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons” if alliance members tried to isolate Kaliningrad from the rest of Russia, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
Kaliningrad, a Russian territory geographically separated from the Russian mainland, is located on the Baltic Sea between NATO members Poland and Lithuania and is home to significant Russian military assets, including elements of Moscow’s Baltic Fleet.
The Russian document also mentions the possibility of strikes against “decision centers” in NATO member states at the start of a conflict.
NATO rejected Moscow’s allegations in a response reviewed by Fox News Digital, saying the alliance was defensive and that none of its exercises or activities threatened Russian territory.
The alliance also urged Russia to stop its “irresponsible nuclear rhetoric.”
Carrie Filipetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition, a nonpartisan network of foreign policy leaders, told Fox News Digital that Moscow has repeatedly used the nuclear threat to try to deter Western support for Ukraine.
“Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons in the past, including veiled references to tactical nuclear attacks at the start of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, lowering the official threshold for launching a nuclear attack in 2024, placing Russian nuclear forces on high alert and resuming nuclear testing,” Filipetti said. “It is very common for Putin to resort to these threats, because he sees it as a way to dissuade Europe and the United States from continuing to support Ukraine. »
“The threat of a nuclear attack if Kaliningrad is threatened or isolated follows a few developments,” she added, pointing to NATO planes flying over Russian planes, US and NATO air exercises near Kaliningrad last month and heightened tensions over the war in Ukraine.
Filipetti, who also served as deputy assistant secretary at the State Department and senior policy advisor to the United States Mission to the United Nations (USUN), argued that the timing also reflects the growing pressure on Moscow as the war continues.
“Putin seems to understand that the tide is turning against him and he is resorting to aggressive rhetoric to try to end European support for Ukraine, as he has tried to do in the past,” she said.
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim, a research professor at the US Army War College’s Institute for Strategic Studies and director of strategy at the New Lines Institute, told Fox News Digital that NATO should take the warning seriously, particularly given the broader role Kaliningrad already plays in Moscow’s confrontation with Europe.
Ibrahim argued that while NATO traditionally prepares for conventional military conflict involving “tanks, troops and divisions,” Russia is increasingly using methods designed to disrupt the infrastructure and systems on which civil societies depend.
“Russia is actually taking a very different approach,” he said, describing a hybrid warfare strategy targeting “infrastructure” and “societies in general – what allows societies to function.”
Ibrahim described Kaliningrad as the “front line” of this effort.
“It’s basically become a Russian fortress,” he said. “This is essentially a front-line operation by the Russians in terms of signals intelligence, electromagnetic interference and essentially the mechanisms to carry out this hybrid warfare.”
Such interference, Ibrahim said, could play a role in a broader confrontation by disrupting civilian communications and infrastructure before or alongside a conventional military attack.
“All of this would be preceded by interference operations like this to ensure that companies do not operate, are not able to respond to emergency services, information services, etc. “, said Ibrahim. “Governments are therefore losing control over what really makes societies work. »
The challenge for NATO, he explained, is that such operations can be more difficult to attribute than a conventional attack.
“Many times it is impossible to determine exactly where this interference is actually coming from: attacks on power plants, the Internet and telecommunications, et cetera,” Ibrahim said. “There’s always some sort of plausible deniability if it’s done by a very competent actor.”
According to Ibrahim, this ambiguity poses a challenge for an alliance built around collective defense against armed attacks.
“NATO really needs to reconfigure its posture to understand that these types of attacks are equivalent to any sort of kinetic attack,” he said.
Asked what NATO and neighboring Poland and Lithuania should do following Russia’s warning, Ibrahim called on the alliance to establish clearer consequences in the event of hybrid attacks.
“We must now start to go on the offensive in terms of hybrid warfare, understand the threat, repel it and send a very clear signal to Moscow that such threats will not stand,” he said, arguing that a sufficiently serious hybrid attack should be considered capable of triggering NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause.
Lithuania, which directly borders Kaliningrad, rejected Moscow’s warning and accused Russia of trying to undermine NATO unity and Western support for Ukraine.
“Russia’s insinuations and threats have no basis. NATO is a defensive alliance and poses no threat to Russia or any other country,” Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry said on Fox News Digital. “Russia’s threats are aimed at breaking transatlantic unity and hindering our support for Ukraine. Russia will not achieve its goals.”
The ministry added: “We strongly condemn any threats of use of force and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric. Russia must stop its aggression against Ukraine… Lithuania is strengthening its national defense system and capabilities, including air defense,” the ministry said. “We train with our allies and work alongside NATO forces deployed in Lithuania. We are ready to defend every inch of NATO territory and respond to any threats.”
The ministry said Lithuania would also continue to provide “comprehensive support to Ukraine and its fight against the Russian aggressor.”
Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Richard Newton told Fox News Digital, “In the weeks leading up to February 2022, many officials and commentators (myself included) were unsure whether Putin would actually invade Ukraine, even though there were a number of warnings and indicators that he would. And then, on February 24, Putin launched the largest ground invasion against Ukraine since World War II.”
“NATO should take seriously Russia’s warning that it could resort to the use of nuclear weapons against the alliance if Kaliningrad is cut off from Russia. We are in the midst of a Russia that employs ‘gray zone’ coercive actions against NATO countries, so this statement should not surprise the West,” he added.
Filipetti warned that whether or not Moscow intends to follow through, nuclear threats themselves carry risks.
“NATO is a defensive organization that in no way threatens the Russian position in Kaliningrad,” she said. “That said, any time there is a public threat of nuclear attack, it should be taken seriously, especially with someone like Putin. »
“Nuclear bombs are a world-changing technology,” Filipetti added. “It is not only their use, but also the threat of their use, that could cause significant miscalculations and escalations. »
Russia has denied Western accusations that it is waging hybrid warfare against European states and said it does not intend to attack NATO countries. Moscow says NATO military activity around Kaliningrad is instead contributing to an increasingly dangerous confrontation.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called recent Russian warnings diplomatic reminders to “hotheads in Europe,” Reuters reported on Wednesday.
Fox News Digital reached out to the Polish and Russian embassies for comment but did not receive responses in time for publication.
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