- The resumption of war in the next three to four weeks could influence the midterm elections, in part because oil prices could rise as a result. It could also influence Israeli elections, scheduled for October 27.
What he says: “I want to make it clear to everyone that even though Iran is in a very bad situation, both economically and militarily, and the blockade will remain in full force and oil is flowing in record numbers of barrels through the Strait of Hormuz…we will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Flashback: In June 2025, before Operation Midnight Hammer, the White House said Trump would decide “within two weeks” whether the United States would join Israel’s war against Iran. When he made this statement, he had already decided to attack Iran’s nuclear sites.
- On February 27, less than 24 hours before Israel and the United States launched war against Iran, Trump claimed that he had not made the decision to go to war. In reality, Trump had already decided to authorize the attacks.
Driving the news: The Pentagon several days ago asked U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to conclude preparations for the resumption of major combat operations in Iran, Axios reported Wednesday.
Behind the scenes: On Tuesday, Israeli Army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir spoke with senior U.S. officials who briefed him on the U.S. military’s preparations for the possibility of resuming significant combat operations against Iran in the next three weeks, according to a U.S. official and another source briefed on the call.
- Zamir said on the call that resuming war within that time frame could lead to the postponement of Israeli elections, given that Iran would respond by launching missiles at Israel, the sources said.
- The Israeli military declined to comment on conversations between Zamir and his American counterparts.
Between the lines: It is unclear whether Trump’s statement will reassure Iranian leaders that an attack is not imminent.
- U.S. and Israeli officials say Iranian leaders are deeply suspicious of Trump’s statements.
- Officials said Iranian leaders had been surprised twice and wanted to avoid a third surprise attack.
What to watch: Trump said the United States and Iran were “having productive discussions.” But there is no sign that the main differences between the two sides have narrowed.
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